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02-11-2013, 07:13 PM
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Originally Posted by wingnutks View Post
NAM was all wrong with Nemo until the last minute. GFS did a horrible job. ECMWF was pretty close the whole time, but underestimated the QPF, but then again who would have believed the last minute NAM with 4"+ QPF.

Right now the biggest difference in this weekends storm is the Euro has the upper trough deeper and further east so by the time the storm bombs out it will be north east of long island.

As far as the impact of the snow pack, it matters but most of the snow back is down stream of the system... from LI and northeastward. The snow pack will have less of an impact than if it was in PA/OH/NY/NJ
Yeah, the NAM and GFS didn't handle Nemo well at all... Though the NAM's QPF, as you said, wasn't as overdone as one might think upon first seeing it. This time it seems as though the American models were the first to pick up on a more amplified S/W allowing for a quicker negative tilt to the trough letting it run further north... If it verifies I'd score it as a win for the NAM/GFS over the EURO for this particular storm

I'm curious to hear your thoughts as to this weekends potential, since it looks VERY intriguing

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