View Single Post
Old
02-14-2013, 05:32 AM
  #928
DAChampion
Registered User
 
DAChampion's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Canberra, Australia
Country: Australia
Posts: 12,492
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ECWHSWI View Post
shows how much you know about the game, really...
I'm sorry, you're right, my labeling of Markov is not correct, it is a severe exaggeration.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Your not addressing the issue, if you can get 5-6 equally important players why do we HAVE to tank to get that one extra guy? Tanking is risky, that's why the only teams who do it have basically nothing to begin with. You've never explained why we should take that risk beyond it might help us in the future while ignoring the fact that it might hurt us too.
The way I see it, you need several quality players including at least 2 or 3 perennial all stars to be a legitimate contender. There are many ways to get those players, but the easiest way and the way with the highest probability of success is with high picks.

Each strategy comes with a risk of failure. If you draft high you could end up with Benoit Pouliot rather than Carey Price. If you go the UFA route you can end up with Wade Redden as easily as you can end up with Zdeno Chara. If you go the trade route you can end up with Scott Gomez as easily as you can end up with James Neal.

Further, in the case of the Habs, drafting is our strength. I trust Trevor Timmins. If he is deciding who we pick at 6th overall or wherever, then I think that is a high yield opportunity. For example he picked Galchenyuk last year at 3rd overall, which contrary to the liturgy of the hindsight brigade was not an obvious choice. In contrast, when it comes to the trade or UFA route, we depend on the brainpower of our GM and our scouts. These guys may be on par in competence with Timmins, but I doubt it.

My impression of the 2012 UFA season was that Bergevin really wanted Shane Doan, but he didn't want Alexander Semin, who is thus far a vastly superior player. But it's too early to tell, maybe Bergevin-Dudley's competence will be sufficiently high relative to Timmins' that we can justify the trade-UFA strategy over the draft strategy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Not sure I agree with that it depends on lot on the draft year. 2003 for example I would much rather the 15 picks, same goes for 2007. You have a better chance of getting a great player with a top 5 pick, so what? It doesn't address the fact that in order to get that top pick you have to dismantle the team or have really bad luck. If you dismantle the team you might not be able to put it back together again once you get that pick.
Well, obviously we need to go by the average of all the draft years I think, either that or we acknowledge that 2013 is likely a superior draft year.

A page or two back I listed who I think are the top 18 centers in the NHL. Maybe you have a different list, but I bet it's very similar. ECSWHCI then proceeded to go through that list, and pointed out to me that half those players are top-3 picks. I hadn't realized that. It seems like a high-yield strategy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
You have to ignore what happened pre-cap because it was a completly different landscape.
Agreed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
If you look post lockout we haven't been wasting our time, we've improved from bubble team that usually misses the playoffs to a team that makes the playoffs more often than not who has a good future ahead of it. That's not wasting our time.
I'm not sure how we've improved.

We were already a playoff team pre-cap, didn't we lose to the Lightning in the 2nd round just before the lockout?

In the post-lockout era we have been 7th, 10th, 1st, 8th, 8th, 6th, 15th -- I don't see an improvement trend. I'm pretty sure a linear regression would yield a negative trend, but I'm too lazy to compute it here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Every team needs luck, we lucked into a random top-5 pick. Boston got lucky when they ended up with Seguin & Hamilton instead of two mid 1sts. LA got lucky that Kopitar was still around at 11th.
Which is why you want to roll the dice more often, for example our 3 2nd rounders this year.

The expected amount of success for independent random variables is equal to the product of [[the probability of success of each variable ]] and [[ the number of variables ]]. With one 1st rounder we can expect to draft a Higgins. With three 1st rounders we can expect to draft a McDonagh, a Higgins, and a Fischer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
I'm against rebuilding because where the team is at right now. By tanking we are risking our future. It's simply not worth it for a team in MTL's position.
It's hard to see a plausible path to contention, i.e. a "future", with the current talent crop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
The team was completly rebuilt. It was a rebuild through free agency. Maybe you should check out a dictionary.
Agreed, it was a failed rebuild.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Souray could've gotten more than Rivet, I think he was worth the equivalent of 2 1st round picks. 2 mid-late 1st =/= Bobby Ryan or similar player. We also tried to re-sign him, if we had signed him to a 6 year deal would it still have been short term thinking?
I'm fine with either resigning players or dealing with picks and young prospects. However, what I hate is losing players for nothing. We lost Sourray, Streit, Koivu, Kovalev, Komisarek, Tanguay, for nothing.

The only time I'm ok with it is if you are a legitimate contender, in which case the math is equivalent to renting a player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
You have a crystal ball do you? It's unlikely we win the cup this year (1-2%). It's unlikely that Pittsgurgh wins the cup this year too (~15%).
The Habs I give a 50% chance of making the playoffs and then a 40% average chance for each playoff round: 1.3% stanley cup probability for the Habs. The Pens I give a 90% chance of making the playoffs and a 55% average chance for each playoff round, so 8.3% stanley cup probability for the Pens.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
Do we even have that opportunity anymore. We are 1/4 the way through the season and look like a playoff bubble team.
Somebody else a few pages back pointed out that around March something the Habs will have played half their games at home and half on the road. That date was before the trade deadline I think, so good evaluation point.

Right now we've played 8 home games (10 points) and 4 road games (5 points), good enough for 15 points in 12 games. We'll see how things keep up.


Last edited by DAChampion: 02-14-2013 at 05:42 AM.
DAChampion is offline