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02-14-2013, 06:53 AM
  #930
Sorinth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The way I see it, you need several quality players including at least 2 or 3 perennial all stars to be a legitimate contender. There are many ways to get those players, but the easiest way and the way with the highest probability of success is with high picks.

Each strategy comes with a risk of failure. If you draft high you could end up with Benoit Pouliot rather than Carey Price. If you go the UFA route you can end up with Wade Redden as easily as you can end up with Zdeno Chara. If you go the trade route you can end up with Scott Gomez as easily as you can end up with James Neal.
It's really debatable that a high picks are as risky as a UFA or trade. I'm sure many more draft picks fail to live up to the hype then UFAs go Gomez on you. And even when they do you, a lot of people would've predicted they will fail to live up to the contract the second they sign it, that's not the case for high picks.

If you are in the basement or near to it already then yes the easiest way to get those players is tanking. That's not the Habs though. If we want to get those picks then we will have to dismantle the current team. Which means after we get those picks we will have to rebuild the supporting cast and during that time we also risk stunting the development of the young players. Also since UFA comes up so quickly if you spend most of their RFA years in the basement they might decide to hit the UFA market rather then sticking with the rebuild.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
A page or two back I listed who I think are the top 18 centers in the NHL. Maybe you have a different list, but I bet it's very similar. ECSWHCI then proceeded to go through that list, and pointed out to me that half those players are top-3 picks. I hadn't realized that. It seems like a high-yield strategy.
No doubt top picks yield great players. The problem is in thinking it's easy to get back to where we are right now even after you get them. If it's so easy to build a playoff team without superstars like we have then why are teams like the Leafs, Columbus, NYI, etc... failing at it. Those teams would gladly trade some top picks for some consistent playoff apperances. Building a playoff team is much harder than people give credit for, and that's true whether you have top picks in your lineup or not.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I'm not sure how we've improved.
We have a much more balanced forward group, gone are the days of it being 1-2 good players trying to carry a bunch of scrubs/young hopefulls. We can now roll 3 offensive lines. Our D lacks depth, but the top 4 is at or near the best it's ever been. And our prospect pool (If you include Galchenyuk) is pretty strong too.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
In the post-lockout era we have been 7th, 10th, 1st, 8th, 8th, 6th, 15th -- I don't see an improvement trend. I'm pretty sure a linear regression would yield a negative trend, but I'm too lazy to compute it here.
If you take the two fluke years (1st & 15th) then it is trending up. But it even so it ignores the fact that it's very easy for a good team to implode and drop to the bottom, it's very hard for a bad team to do the opposite and finish on top.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Which is why you want to roll the dice more often, for example our 3 2nd rounders this year.

The expected amount of success for independent random variables is equal to the product of [[the probability of success of each variable ]] and [[ the number of variables ]]. With one 1st rounder we can expect to draft a Higgins. With three 1st rounders we can expect to draft a McDonagh, a Higgins, and a Fischer.
But your ignoring the fact that there is a cost associated with getting more dice rolls.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
It's hard to see a plausible path to contention, i.e. a "future", with the current talent crop.
You started a thread about a 1-year surgical tank, whereby adding one top-5 pick would turn us into a contender. That means you think we are one elite player away from becoming a contender. You can't see a prospect breaking out and exceeding expectations, you can't see us signing a great UFA, or finally ripping someone off in a trade. Hell all it would really take is for Price or Subban to be who we all want them to be.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I'm fine with either resigning players or dealing with picks and young prospects. However, what I hate is losing players for nothing. We lost Sourray, Streit, Koivu, Kovalev, Komisarek, Tanguay, for nothing.
I think a lot of the blame for that goes on the stupid don't re-sign players during the year rule. It was reasonable to assume we could've re-signed Souray. If we had been talking to him for a few months before the deadline we would've know what he was looking for and been able to make a much more informed decision.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The Habs I give a 50% chance of making the playoffs and then a 40% average chance for each playoff round: 1.3% stanley cup probability for the Habs. The Pens I give a 90% chance of making the playoffs and a 55% average chance for each playoff round, so 8.3% stanley cup probability for the Pens.
Seem like reasonable numbers. Which proves my point, you can't base an argument on us being unlikely to win right now, because no one is likely to win. It will always take a large degree of luck.

When people talk about stacking the deck, or taking one step back so that we can take two steps forward. That's only looking at what happens if it works, but since there's a very good chance of it not working, you will have just taken one step back.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Somebody else a few pages back pointed out that around March something the Habs will have played half their games at home and half on the road. That date was before the trade deadline I think, so good evaluation point.

Right now we've played 8 home games (10 points) and 4 road games (5 points), good enough for 15 points in 12 games. We'll see how things keep up.
I have absolutley no problems with MB sitting on his hands until then. Unless someone is desperate and is making an offer you can't refuse we shouldn't be buying or selling right now.

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