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02-14-2013, 09:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Mats86 View Post
Pouliot is good comparsion. Offense isn't there. Gauthier more successful than him probably as superior defense.

Neither will be offensive player in NHL despite their high draft ranking. Just a little leg work. If you want to see how a player offense translates to NHL, compare them to previous similar players in recent drafts. I've done this for years, there are exceptions to the rule, but it is pretty accurate. Injuries, size, speed, what team drafts a player play a role. But averaged out gives good idea how much they will score.

I give the draft a few years to judge previous players a little, they need a few years to develop.

2013 - Gauthier - Likely drafted in first round from Q, Has 54 points in 49 games. PPG 1.10
2009 - Jordan Caron - top draftee in Q, 25th overall. Had 67 in 56 games. PPG 1.19
2008 - No Q forward drafted in first round.
2007 - Jakub Voracek - 8th overall from Q, 86 points in 59 games. PPG 1.46
- Logan MacMillan - 19 overall from Q, 55 points in 68 games, PPG .81
- Angelo Esposito - 20th overall from Q, 79 points in 60 games, PPG 1.32
2006 - Derrick Brassard - 6th from the Q, 116 PTS in 58 games. PPG 2.0
- James Sheppard - 9th from the Q, 84 PTS in 66 games. PPG 1.27
- Claude Giroux - 22nd from the Q, 103 pts in 69 games. PPG 1.49
2005 - Sidney Crosby - 1st pick from Q, 168 PTS in 62 games. PPG 2.70
- Marek Zagrapan - 13th from the Q, 82 PTS in 59 games. PPG 1.39
- Alex Bourret - 16th from the Q, 86 PTS, in 65 games. PPG 1.32
2004 - Alex Picard - 8th from the Q, 80 PTS IN 69 games. PPG 1.16
2003 - Steve Bernier - 16th from the Q, 101 PTS in 71 games. PPG 1.42
- Marc-Antoine Pouliot - 22ND, 73 PTS in 65 games. PPG 1.12
2002 - Pierre-Marc Bouchard - 8th, 140 PTS in 69 games. PPG 2.02
2001 - Ales Hemsky - 13th from the Q, 100 PTS in 68 games. PPG 1.47
2000 - No forwards chosen from Q in first round.

That's 15 QMJHL forwards chosen in first round over last 10 drafts. Quite a wide database. The best was Crosby at 2.7 PPG. Next was Bouchard and Brassard. Neither lived up to accolades, partly due to injuries. Hemsky and Giroux were around 1.5 PPG in their draft year. And, have gone on to relative careers to their draft numbers. Numbers say Voracek should score better. But forwards around 1.1 PPG, gone on to be bottom 6 forwards, or fringe NHLers. Pouliot, Caron, Picard.

With his size and good defensive skills Gauthier will go on to good career. But as 3rd line two-way center with great size, 40-45 pts in NHL on average year. If he never had great size and defense Gauthier would be non-draft to me.
Switch Pouliot to Bergeron, and you start to make sense.

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