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02-14-2013, 11:01 AM
Roy So Hard
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Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
The reason for the change in perspective is trajectory. It's the only important thing when talking about prospects. Kevin Roy's trajectory has been incredible. When scouts look at a player, they don't look at what they see today to make a final evaluation. They ask themselves, how much room for growth does this player have. In two years, will this player be significantly better than he is right now or will he just tread water. There have been a TON of first round picks that have gone back to Junior and replicated, with no improvement, their draft eligible seasons. There have even been quite a few that regressed and went backwards.

When scouts looked at Kevin Roy, they didn't see a player who could step in right away and dominate NCAA hockey. If they did, he would have gone in the first round. What is exciting to scouts is how much better the Kevin Roy of this year looks compared to the Kevin Roy of last year against weaker competition.

The jump from USHL to the NCAA is tremendous. Success at one level does not indicate success at the other.
Exactly. The trajectory is key. Once undersized, now maybe slightly undersized overager breaks scoring record in the emerging US answer to Canada's tier 1 junior leagues. He does well at the combine which boosts his stock a bit. And he goes 4th round, which is expected (i know some people maybe had him at 3rd round).

Like you said, the scouts may not have been looking for someone who dominates NCAA from the get go, but someone who could grow into a player of that type eventually for the pro game. I and many others who've followed Roy closely had suspicions that Kevin would come out and score right away, but what matters is like you said: the trajectory. Will he plateau before the pros come calling? That's what pushed him back in the draft since many guys older than 17/18 dominate junior competition to no fruition.

With research though, one can see Roy's development curve is only different in its framework. His family valuing education, Roy only played 18 games his senior year at Deerfield Academy. He played well (34 points), but didn't quite do enough to garner a draft pick (The first player from the New England high school circuit was taken in the late 5th round in 2011). There are some politics to players being selected early in the draft as well. Danny O'Regan, a BU freshman forward, is the same size as Roy and dominated the prep circuit (50 points in 25 games junior and senior year) in New England before joing the USNTDP, and only going in the 5th round.

Combine everything mentioned and you'll see why this very talented player didn't go in the first two rounds. And after seeing him in person, he is for real. He won the Beanpot MVP as a losing player, scoring 5 of 6 tournament goals for a depleted roster.

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