OT: Severe Weather Discussion
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02-14-2013, 02:01 PM
Join Date: Feb 2003
Originally Posted by
Inches at the moment, but there is potential for the event to be even larger... 99.9% chance its nowhere near the size of Nemo, but it could be a decent sized storm...
This afternoon a bunch of models spit out a snowstorm of about ~6 inches... but then the Euro (the model that is pretty much a head above the rest) said "What storm?" with only light precip for us...
Its such a complex setup that ANY slight shift with any packet of energy could mean the difference between a foot and no snow...
The problem is that where this energy is coming from theres very little data available... as it moves closer to the coast and over land it will be better sampled and therefore more forecastable...
It's like a math problem... What is 5 + X? By the way, X is a number between 1 and 100... Can you get the right answer by guessing? Sure, but more often than not by randomly filling in numbers you're going to be wrong since you dont have enough data... thats why I want to wait till tonight to get some better info
In this case, lets hope the Euro is right. If you have some free time, maybe you could send me a PM and explain which models I should be looking at from the millions that were on those two sites. I would appreciate it. Thanks
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