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02-16-2013, 08:22 AM
  #107
enthropi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
ESPN has an excellent game summary tool that lists every event during a game. I took a look at the last Vancouver game to see if there was anything of interest in explaining the Oilers shot differential. What I found was the following


Code:
Distance	Oilers	Canucks
0-19	9	4
20-29	5	8
30-39	5	10
40-49	5	4
50+   	1	14
The Canucks big shot advantage was all on shots from over 50 feet out. In fact 7 of the Canuck shots came from 60 ft or more away from the net. This is actually something I suspected. A good part of the reason for the big shot differential is that the Oilers give up lots of point shots but other than Schultz they have few of their own.

This is especially true on pp's.

Part of this is good news. One can argue that the shot differential skews the perception of the game play. BUt part of it is bad news as well. Lots of point shots against can be indicative of the fact that the team does still struggle to get the puck out of their own end.
The reality of that is that opponents feel like they can score from anywhere on the oilers, ie: Dubnyk doesn't intimidate. Both the goalie and the d are prone to fluke or stupid goal. Hopefully, Dubnyk's recent performances will eventually change that, but I still see that he is easier to score on from far than from in-close, he simply doesn't look big in net, doesn't force opponents to search for intricate plays or perfect shots be able to score like Price or Lundvist do, for example. Anyone who sees such goalies with regularity see there is still a gap for Dubnyk to make up to be atthat level, even if he does make a lot of saves.

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