Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4
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02-20-2013, 09:35 AM
Join Date: Jul 2010
Interesting analysis, thanks! However, I do not think it is fair to conclude that first round picks are overvalued based in the evidence you presented. While a large number may bust it is also one of the few ways to get a truly elite player. If the chances if getting an elite ppg forward are low in the first, and lower outside the first, how do you think franchises should rebuild without first round picks, which is where the majority of the talent comes from?
You need something to give more weight to the homerun picks if you hope to conclude something about the value of first rounders imo.
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