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02-20-2013, 11:51 AM
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ChadSC
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Total Hockey Rating (THoR): A comprehensive statistical rating of NHL Players

At the start of March is the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference - basically the Super Bowl of sports analytics conferences.

One of the hockey related research papers is "Total Hockey Rating (THoR): A comprehensive statistical rating of National Hockey League forwards and defensemen based upon all on-ice events" - and is a very interesting look at valuing players.

Here is a link to the research paper:
http://www.sloansportsconference.com...e%20events.pdf

"Here we present a new comprehensive rating that accounts for other players on the ice will a give player as well as the impact of where a shift starts and of every non-shooting events such as turnovers and hits that occur when a player is on the ice. The impact of each play is determined by the probability that it leads to a goal for a player’s team (or their opponent) in the subsequent 20 seconds. The primary outcome of this work is a reliable methodology that can quantify the impact of players in creating and preventing goals for both forwards and defenseman. We present ratings for the top forwards and defensemen based on all events from the 2010-11 and 2011-12 NHL regular seasons."

Top 15 Defenseman (2010-2012) by THoR:
  • Team Player Position Wins Created
  • Philadelphia Flyers Kimmo Timonen D 5.73
  • Los Angeles Kings Drew Doughty D 4.07
  • Edmonton Oilers Tom Gilbert* D 3.32
  • Columbus Blue Jackets Fedor Tyutin D 3.13
  • Calgary Flames Mark Giordano D 3.08
  • Philadelphia Flyers Andrej Meszaros D 2.82
  • Chicago Blackhawks Brent Seabrook D 2.63
  • New York Rangers Ryan McDonagh D 2.50
  • Detroit Red Wings Niklas Kronwall D 2.48
  • Anaheim Ducks Lubomir Visnovsky* D 2.48
  • Pittsburgh Penguins Paul Martin D 2.27
  • Winnipeg Jets Tobias Enstrom D 2.23
  • Ottawa Senators Erik Karlsson D 2.22
  • Boston Bruins Zdeno Chara D 2.18
  • New York Rangers Michael Sauer D 1.95

Top 15 Forwards
  • Team Player Position Wins Created
  • St. Louis Blues Alexander Steen C 6.72
  • Detroit Red Wings Pavel Datsyuk C 6.32
  • Pittsburgh Penguins Tyler Kennedy C 6.05
  • Boston Bruins Patrice Bergeron C 5.95
  • Nashville Predators Patric Hornqvist R 5.88
  • Phoenix Coyotes Ray Whitney L 5.62
  • Pittsburgh Penguins Evgeni Malkin C 5.57
  • Vancouver Canucks Ryan Kesler C 5.53
  • Chicago Blackhawks Jonathan Toews C 5.50
  • Vancouver Canucks Daniel Sedin L 5.47
  • San Jose Sharks Joe Pavelski C 5.42
  • Toronto Maple Leafs Mikhail Grabovski C 5.13
  • Carolina Hurricanes Jeff Skinner C 5.07
  • Los Angeles Kings Anze Kopitar C 4.93
  • Pittsburgh Penguins Sidney Crosby C 4.92

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