Revisiting the Andy Mcdonald trade
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02-20-2013, 04:07 PM
Ducks tank is on!
Join Date: Aug 2005
Originally Posted by
Regarding #1 & #2
I remember shortly after this trade went down making a detailed post about the other options that were available on the market that summer and how much they went for. The Ducks were looking for the closest thing to a top line forward and a top pairing defenseman and were willing to accept a top six forward and a top four defenseman. There wasn't a lot available for the price point Anaheim had available (remember this was at the same time as the Penner fiasco).
I'm convinced that if this happened, the Ducks would not have gotten the extra 2.5 seasons from Niedermayer nor the extra 4.5 (and counting) seasons from Selanne.
No there wasn't a whole lot else available. And those were some big holes.
But my thing is Burke went and got pretty much the best replacements available. I believe Schneider was #2 in terms of offensive defensemen (only behind Rafalski). And Bert was risky, but he was still moderately high in terms of potential. All while knowing those two might come back. And if they did come back, he would have been screwed. So you basically have to weigh the chance they will return, and budget accordingly.
I think of it this way. Weigh things out according to probabilities. Take a hypothetical situation. You have a star player, Niederlanne in the same situation. He makes 10 million dollars (and is still a bargain at that price). You then estimate the chance he returns. Say it's 60%. So you only go out and offer for a ~4-5 million dollar player as a replacement.
What Burke did was go out and spend 10 million dollars for a replacement. Then Niederlanne returns and he's all capped out. I don't think he had proper contingency planning.
If he provides an ultimatum, there is a good chance they leave the team. But the point is it prevents a big cap cluster**** like we ended up in. My list isn't necessarily a list of things I would recommend to do, just lots of reasonable actions that would have prevented the McDonald trade.
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