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02-20-2013, 07:58 PM
Talks to Goalposts
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
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Originally Posted by WakeUpNHL View Post
Most interesting to me is the 5on5 save percentage stats:

White 1.00 (no goals against scored 5on5!)
Diaz 0.966 (highest amongst Dman)

MaxPac 0.891
Desharnais 0.886 (horrible defensively)
There is probably no element an individual forward has less influence on than the save percentage behind them. Save percentage is typically about team wide systems, goaltender talent and mostly shear random chance than anything else. Over a 14 game sample its likely just random noise and nothing meaningful.

PDO is about the how sustainable a player's goal differential is. If its high like for Galchenyuk you can expect his goal differential to get less impressive, if its low like for Desharnais you can expect them to improve. None of that should be surprising, if Galchenyuk could maintain a 10 for - 3 against ratio every 14 games he'd be the greatest player in the league by a huge amount while if Desharnais was regularly a 5 goals for and 9 against player in the same time he'd get kicked out of the league very quickly. You can expect a player's PDO to approach 1000 as time goes on because its much more a matter of chance than talent (although very good offensive players can beat the mean by small amounts on shooting percentage and teams with exceptionally good or bad goaltending talent will be effected by that).

The important thing to know for these kinds of statistics is that small numbers are more about happenstance than talent. Which is why things like shots are more reliable measures of talent in small samples than goals. Goals are more meaningful events but there haven't been enough of them yet for them to have real statistical meaning.

Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 02-20-2013 at 08:14 PM.
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