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02-21-2013, 12:27 PM
  #354
Avs71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
Thanks a million! Says a lot, when a guy is holding out and will probably get traded and you still see a post like this. Do you see him being a consistent 60-65 point guy in his career? We can't expect much more from Richards and he's not that great defensively.
It's really hard to say. Last season he played with a rookie Landeskog who is obviously very good, but they started out as a checking line used basically for their hustle. They had Dan Winnik on the wing who played well with them, but can not convert goal scoring opportunities for his life. When Downie came over, prior to blowing out his shoulder, the line was very dominant. It was easily the Avs top line, and they went head to head against the other top lines and did great. If ROR can put up 50+ points playing with guys, who like O'Reilly are more determination than skill, then I could see him breaking 60+ with skilled wingers. I don't know who the Rangers would want him to play with, but there is so much talent on your roster it is hard to see him not excelling. Whether he does it consistently? Who knows. Olli Jokinen went from hitting 100 points to being a 50 points guy. Mike Richards now looks like a ~50 point centerman. Things could happen that prevent him from doing it consistently, but I don't see his determination and work ethic ever deteriorating, so I would put my bet on him staying at least around 50 points and having a much better season here and there, while obviously still being a very valuable player when he isn't putting up points. Him and Callahan together could give defencemen nightmares.

I think most Avs fans would gladly welcome him back, even if he sat out the whole year. If we could have it our way, Stastny would get traded an O'Reilly would be signed long term (provided that we needed to trade a centerman).

This of course is just my opinion. I think most agree he will just keep getting better since he is only 21 years old. If you want something based a little more on facts then HockeyProspectus has a decent article on him.

Here's a snippet:

Quote:
Turning to history to help plot his career path, the list of the most statistically comparable players at his age actually include Mark Messier and Joe Thornton. The closest match is probably Troy Murray, a strong defensive-minded, penalty-killing, playmaking, faceoff-winning forward for the Chicago Blackhawks throughout the 1980s, who won the 1996 Stanley Cup with the Avs in the twilight of his career. Murray, who was far more physical and had a much better shot, won the Selke Trophy as the league's top defensive player at age 23, something we wouldn't be surprised to see matched by O'Reilly.

As for scoring, both of the two most popular statistical projection systems (VUKOTA and Snepsts) have him down for an exact repeat of his 55 points, but with a potentially much higher long-term upside.
Hopefully that helps answer your question a bit. Of course its all almost opinion based though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
Good write-up, Avs71. An informed opinion is always welcome around here!
Thank you.

On a separate note, I saw it mentioned in here that the Rangers would need a window to negotiate with O'Reilly before a trade went through. If I'm not mistaken, the Rangers could talk to him today and find out what he would sign for if they traded for him, seeing as he is a "free agent." So if a trade went down, I would think he would sign almost hours after being acquired.

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