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02-22-2013, 01:42 PM
  #510
The Sweetness
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Join Date: Jul 2010
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This post is directed at those, mostly smoneil, who feel that O'Reilly had a career year as a 21 year-old due to being on the same line as Landeskog.

Quote:
Originally Posted by smoneil View Post
I can't figure out why you guys can't see this one. This is the one point where it looks the same whether you are basing your argument on the stats OR watching the games. Stat-wise: You have a player noted for being offensively limited. Drafted as a defensive specialist. Spends two years in the league as a defensive specialist. Third year in the league, he's suddenly putting up 2nd line production. He doubles his previous career high. How often do you see numbers jump like that?! Answer--you don't. Development is nearly always incremental. What changed? One thing--Landeskog got stapled to his wing.
Development is not nearly always incremental. It can come in stops and starts, huge leaps, or some smooth sort of trajectory, but there is no evidence showing that O'Reilly is unique in his development as you seem to believe.

To disprove this let's look at some examples of players who took sudden jumps in their production, like O'Reilly did last year. Listed below are players I found in about 15 minutes of searching (there are obviously more but the list below is sufficient for it's purpose) who took huge leaps (doubling their production) from one year to another.

Henrik Zetterbrg – doubled in 3rd season
Mikael Samuelsson – doubled in 3rd season
Henrik Sedin – nearly doubled in 5th season
Lubomir Vishnovsky – doubled in 5th season
Patrick Sharp – nearly doubled in 4th-5th full season
Stamkos – doubled in 2nd year
St Louis – doubled in 4th year
Seguin – tripled in 2nd year
Brian Boyle – sextupled previous production in 3rd year
Marian Gaborik – doubled in 2nd year
Mason Raymond – more than doubled production in 3rd year
Alex Burrows – tripled in 3rd year, nearly doubled in 4th year
Loui Eriksson – doubled in 3rd year
Dustin Byfuglin – nearly doubled in 4th year despite moving from forward to defense
Zdeno Chara – nearly doubled in 5th-6th full season

In addition, even despite the huge jumps in production listed above, nearly all the players did not have a career year during their breakout season. Also, many of the players were actually older than O'Reilly.

Taking into consideration that O'Reilly's age, physical development, improvement as a player, increased role on the team resulting in improved power play time and the overwhelming evidence that his rapid development is not nearly as unusual as you make it seem, I think we do not need to worry we are getting a player who peaked due to playing one season with Landeskog.


Last edited by The Sweetness: 02-22-2013 at 01:49 PM.
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