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02-22-2013, 05:29 PM
  #521
smoneil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sweetness View Post
This post is directed at those, mostly smoneil, who feel that O'Reilly had a career year as a 21 year-old due to being on the same line as Landeskog.

Development is not nearly always incremental. It can come in stops and starts, huge leaps, or some smooth sort of trajectory, but there is no evidence showing that O'Reilly is unique in his development as you seem to believe.

To disprove this let's look at some examples of players who took sudden jumps in their production, like O'Reilly did last year. Listed below are players I found in about 15 minutes of searching (there are obviously more but the list below is sufficient for it's purpose) who took huge leaps (doubling their production) from one year to another.


Henrik Zetterbrg doubled in 3rd season
Mikael Samuelsson doubled in 3rd season
Henrik Sedin nearly doubled in 5th season
Lubomir Vishnovsky doubled in 5th season
Patrick Sharp nearly doubled in 4th-5th full season
Stamkos doubled in 2nd year
St Louis doubled in 4th year
Seguin tripled in 2nd year
Brian Boyle sextupled previous production in 3rd year
Marian Gaborik doubled in 2nd year
Mason Raymond more than doubled production in 3rd year
Alex Burrows tripled in 3rd year, nearly doubled in 4th year
Loui Eriksson doubled in 3rd year
Dustin Byfuglin nearly doubled in 4th year despite moving from forward to defense
Zdeno Chara nearly doubled in 5th-6th full season
Did you think I wouldn't check or something? Let's take a look at your list. I've rearranged them into five groups--

The Gang of 2005/2006: The first year after the last lockout produced career years for most of the league. Did you not think it was kind of odd that half the guys on your list (Zetterberg, Samuelsson, Sedin, Vishnovsky, Sharp) ALL had such a huge jump in the same season? Doubling your previous career high WAS fairly "normal" in 2005-2006. Since that's not when O'Reilly did it, these guys are completely irrelevant.

Elite Prospects: Seguin (2nd overall) and Stamkos (1st overall) aren't expected to follow a "normal development." They are elite prospects. The only reason their second season stands out is because they didn't do it in their first season. People were calling Stamkos a bust in his first year. Their second years MET the expectations for the player/ceiling.

Guys that Actually Prove My Point For Me: You really included Boyle, Raymond and Burrows?! Boyle was a one year wonder. Raymond was a product of Kesler and the Sedins that year, and he's never come close to those numbers since. Burrows is pretty much ONLY effective with the Sedins.

Guys You Were Just Wrong About: Byfuglien did not actually double his production. Not even close really. He did see a jump in production, but it wasn't massive and it also came with a SEVEN MINUTE increase in ice-time. You are also the only person who seems to think he played defense that year. He was marked as a D on the roster, but he was basically a 4th forward the whole season. Dude made Green look defensively responsible.

You were also off on Gaborik. He saw an increase, but it wasn't double and he played 7 more games than the previous year.


Leftover Guys Who Don't Fit Into an Obvious Category:
Loui Eriksson IS a case of a player who doubled his production without being an elite prospect at the time. Even with that, he played 10+ more games than he did the previous season. Eriksson progressed to be sure, but it's not the exact same situation.

St. Louis is pretty much the same story--yeah, he did it, but he had also never played a full season before the one where he broke out.

As for Chara, yes, he doubled his numbers, but there's a bit of a difference between going from ~10 points to ~20 points and going from 26 points to 55. Also, if you look at Chara's line, he DOES develop incrementally.


I'm not arguing that a player never doubles his production. I'm arguing that it's not common. Out of your list, only a couple actually fit the bill, and they have mitigating circumstances. My entire point is that when a player starts putting up points well beyond what has always been his projected ceiling, it's likely got more to due with the elite guy who suddenly lined up next to him.

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