View Single Post
Old
02-22-2013, 07:20 PM
  #3
XX
It's finally over
 
XX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Jump City!
Country: United States
Posts: 43,012
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
the value that GMs ascribe to draft picks of different levels doesn't correlate very well to the measured value of draft picks of different levels).
Well, can you really account for pressure and market dynamics when weighting the picks? A small market team needs to keep those picks because it's their only shot at high end talent. A big market can trade them away. Then you mix in the phrases "rebuilding" or "contending" and things have another layer of complexity. A GM could have a surplus of picks in one year, leading to a wildly aggressive pattern. Then there's the personal philosophy of each individual GM. A GM could be making brilliant picks, but then the organization fails to develop them. How do you account for that? Wildcards like career ending injuries? The answer is that you probably cant, at least not in a statistically significant way.

Predictions, especially in the draft, are just mildly educated guesses. An outlier like the Wheeler pick or Hickey pick wouldn't tell you much, and would be impossible to predict. The only sure thing is that GMs like who they like.

XX is online now   Reply With Quote