Subban's play since coming back
View Single Post
02-23-2013, 11:08 AM
Join Date: Mar 2004
Originally Posted by
again showing a perfect example of the problem with ignoring observation in favor of over-relying on stats and past performance.
perhaps this example can help put it in context for you...
watching a nucks game not too long ago, Sedin's had been on a long shift, but creating lot's of havoc for the opposing team (iirc they had just 1 shot on net, but they were clearly "buzzing" in the offensive zone and protecting the puck effectively). there was a line change, then a small break in play, and next thing you know they are back on the ice.
Statistically, I'll bet that you can find concrete historical evidence that greater rest in between shifts (up to a certain point) correlates to higher scoring% for a line's next shift... yet here the coach "feels" that his top line is "clicking" (both observations that are more gut feeling than concrete statistically measurable "fact), so he throws them back out before they would have even had time to catch their breath...
You can try to dismiss that as a "one-off" or "outlier", and you would be right to a degree. the thing is that quality observers can and do reliably read these kinds of subjective moments, and are able to seize on them.
no amount of statistical modelling can, in real-time, process and effectively act on this kind of vital information... and that is precisely what separates the best players/coaches/managers in the sporting world.
Diaz is playing very good hockey right now. that he is playing in front of Price, who is also playing very good hockey, doesn't reduce or detract from it. Dismissing it as such completely misses the reality of the ever-changing dynamics of sport. After-the-fact processing of information can explain what has happened, but can't predict what will happen.
coaches/gm's who focus too heavily on what a player has done vs. what they are doing in the present end up making the kind of bone-headed moves we saw so much around here the last few years...
View Public Profile
Find More Posts by HankyZetts