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02-24-2013, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Yes. Offensively, anyway.

Shattenkirk was scoring at a near 50 point pace as a rookie (on a crappy team, no less). That's really an accomplishment. Keith didn't do that. Karlsson didn't do it. Doughty didn't do it. Yandle didn't do it. EJ didn't do it. Suter didn't do it. Shea Weber didn't do it (though he came close). But Shattenkirk was scoring at that pace - so not only was the skill there, the production was already there.

In short, the Avs had something special on their hands.

I have no doubt that he would have grown from there on the Avs also. Now, would he have grown as much defensively? Probably not, no. That was learned by Shattenkirk, and it probably wouldn't have taken place here - Hitchcock vs. Sacco and all that.

Worlds better. Defensively, they might not be much different, but from a goal scoring and transition standpoint, much better. (I'm just plugging him into the current defense there, which includes EJ).
He was also -11 and on pace for 46 points. I don't know, the offense would have been great but that is a lot of minuses. At the point the Avs traded him he had 2 points in his previous 11 games and was -5. It is hard to say if he would have reached that 46 point pace if he stayed with the Avs. With the way the team was trending, as well as Shattenkirk, his rookie season could have looked a lot different. Most notably that +/- could have been a train wreck.

It's not like the team was a whole lot better the next year either. I just don't see Shattenkirk succeeding with the Avs like he has the Blues. He is on a better team, with a better system, and a better coach. He would have been the same defensive player I'm sure if he stayed under Sacco, and that player was racking up the minuses and got pretty exposed every now and then.

As it stands right now, he has two seasons at 43 points. And yes, he is having a pretty great season right now. But if you look at his first month in his rookie season, it was by far his best. Same thing is happening now. He had that great start, and is starting to slow down a bit. Perhaps the rest of the league is getting their legs under them. I'm curious to see his point totals at the end of the season, because I don't think they're going to look as godly as they do now. He'll still have a great season and will have his most productive season to date, but it's also a little strange this season. In the top 30 defensive scorers you have guys like Marc Staal, Cody Franson, Paul Martin, Fedor Tyutin, and Raphael Diaz, and missing guys like Chara, Doughty, Weber. The season just isn't long enough to bump them out without other players having excellent hot streaks. If you can get a great streak going, the numbers are going to look pretty impressive.

Personally, I'm just not sold on Shattenkirk becoming such an amazing offensive talent that it negates his defensive short comings, as well as making the trade looking like one of the worst in history. I know its all ifs, ands, or buts, but when you compare how he played on the Avs to how he plays in St. Louis, it is just hard to imagine he would make this team much better (EJ not being here).

The trade as a whole is another issue, because yes if the Avs were to trade Shattenkirk+Stewart today, they would most likely get more value than Johnson. Whether they would get a better defenceman, it's hard to say. The unfortunate part looking back on it now is Jay Mac. It's too bad they didn't target someone who could have been controlled longer, and it is not like he brought a whole lot of value. He would have been valuable on a contender, but he was kind of just wasted here because the Avs kept losing anyways.

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