At what point does Semin prove himself for a contract extension?
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02-25-2013, 08:21 AM
The Czech Condor
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: North Carolina
Originally Posted by
No he's not. His career average in points per season is closer to 40, around 42 if my calculations are correct. Ruutu has broken the 50 point barrier twice in his NHL career, and never passed 40 in any other season. He's overpaid, and highly overrated. His last season, he didn't even hit people....which was his biggest asset. And if you want to blame that on injury, that just gives me more ammo against the guy as being injury prone.
That's about as accurate as saying LaRose is a regular 20 goal winger!
I don't really care for "career numbers", because they skew the data based on a player that doesn't exist anymore. When Ruutu played for Chicago he was never healthy except for his rookie season. For Carolina, he has largely been exactly the player that I described. Granted, it's easy to bag on the guy because he's hurt right now.
PPG with Carolina:
07-08: 0.65 (53.3 points/82)
08-09: 0.68 (55.8 points/82)
09-10: 0.65 (53.3 points/82)
10-11: 0.70 (57.4 points/82)
11-12: 0.47 (38.5 points/82)
Sample size: 304 games of 341 possible games from 07-08 through 11-12. 89% of possible games played. 191 points in those 304 games. 51.5 points per 82 games with Carolina over his career here. It's pretty simple math.
I think it's a *tiny* bit more probable that last year was the exception instead of the rule in regards to Ruutu's production here. We have quite a bit more evidence to the fact that whatever he was dealing with last year that caused him to have offseason hip surgery was a factor in his less than stellar season.
As for the Larose example, you may not like it but he's a hell of a lot closer to a 20 goal scorer HERE than you'd probably like to admit if you dislike him. He had 19 in 67 games here last year. I think the issue you're having trouble with is the projection against actual created totals. When Ruutu is in the lineup, he's scoring at an obvious 50 point pace. When he's not, he's not scoring at all obviously. With that said, a guy who has played 89% of possible games does not fall under my category of being injury prone per say. I would say he's a guy that plays pretty banged up pretty often, much like Erik Cole, but probably not any more injury prone than anybody else that plays a similar style.
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