View Single Post
Old
02-25-2013, 03:40 PM
  #486
Beukeboom Fan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 11,474
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by patnyrnyg View Post
It is simple math. When just under 80% of the league is making the play-offs (from 82-91) it shouldn't take a rocket science to know that teams grossly under .500 will be in the play-offs.

Look at the conference standings since the league went from 21 to 30. How often is there a team from one conference that finishes 9th, but is 10-20 points better than the 8th place team from the other conference? But, going to look at the standings from 82-98 and see what the numbers look like. Give me a few minutes.
I think this is the key point. There is a MUCH greater variance possible when you've something like this:

Pre-Expansion - 21 teams: 4/6, 4/5, 4/5, 4/5
Now: 30 teams: 4/8, 4/8, 4/7, 4/7

Previously - if a "division" had 3 really good teams, the 4th team that made the P/O's was likely to get beaten up a lot, but still qualify for the P/O's. Compare that to a "division" that had 5 very evenly matched teams, the points of the 4th play-off qualifier would be significantly different just based on strength of schedule. It's my thought that that difference would be signficantly less based on parity and the loser point.

Beukeboom Fan is offline