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02-25-2013, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by patnyrnyg View Post
It is simple math. When just under 80% of the league is making the play-offs (from 82-91) it shouldn't take a rocket science to know that teams grossly under .500 will be in the play-offs.

Look at the conference standings since the league went from 21 to 30. How often is there a team from one conference that finishes 9th, but is 10-20 points better than the 8th place team from the other conference? But, going to look at the standings from 82-98 and see what the numbers look like. Give me a few minutes.
I think this is the key point. There is a MUCH greater variance possible when you've something like this:

Pre-Expansion - 21 teams: 4/6, 4/5, 4/5, 4/5
Now: 30 teams: 4/8, 4/8, 4/7, 4/7

Previously - if a "division" had 3 really good teams, the 4th team that made the P/O's was likely to get beaten up a lot, but still qualify for the P/O's. Compare that to a "division" that had 5 very evenly matched teams, the points of the 4th play-off qualifier would be significantly different just based on strength of schedule. It's my thought that that difference would be signficantly less based on parity and the loser point.

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