Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4
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02-25-2013, 04:08 PM
Join Date: Jul 2010
Originally Posted by
To be fair a late first round pick isn't really over rated. If a contender making a push trades a first between say 15-30 for a low end second liner or high end third that's pretty decent return. That first round pick only has a 30% chance of being anything better then that. Furthermore, they've got about 30% chance of being equal ( a third liner) and about a 30% chance of busting completely. The liklihood of getting a "home run" or top line player in the back half of the first is not usually significantly higher then a second round pick, its pretty much a complete lotto roll at that point.
To be honest, the most overrated picks would be those in the 6-10 range. Fans especially seem to be attache dot the diea that a pick in this range requires legitimate top 6 player to come back. There's a 60% chance that player doesn't reach top 6 ability. of course, theres about a 20% chance he exceeds that talent, but you'll find the amount of "home runs" outside the top 5 is nearly identical from picks 6-30, at that point, most GM's will admit it's just luck.
My point beign theirs a signifact drop off after the top 5, and that in reality, picks 6-10, which often seem to be as coveted as the top 5 are more often then not no better then picks 10-15. The liklihood ofa ctually getting "homeruns" or first liners outisde of the top 5 is pretty well consistent from 6 all the way to 26
Interesting, thanks. Maybe I missed it but is there any kind of analysis showing the odds of getting a top-liner (i.e. homerum) for picks 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, etc? Apologies if I missed it if it was already shown.
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