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02-26-2013, 10:41 AM
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Originally Posted by robert terwilliger View Post
i like what the jays did but the lack of depth is an issue for me.

i don't think melky sustains a .379 babip and when that babip drops, the "omg steroids" talk is going to start. reyes played the most games (160) that he had in 5 years. bautista is coming off a wrist injury, ask ortiz and his .120 slg drop from 2007 to 08 what a wrist injury does for power.

my issue is the depth. i think they're a great team on paper and i like the moves they made. i think they finish in second. tampa has more depth, which shows itself over 162 games. tampa traded shields and davis, two good to very good pitchers and added myers and parts. the funny thing is, they're still at least four deep in the rotation and are returning a young, cheap and extremely good bullpen. rodney won't repeat a record season last year but they can trot out farnsworth/gomes/mcgee/peralta and a host of other arms to backend the pen. having those arms and the rotation depth is what wins games.

that said, i have the rays winning the division with no more than 89 wins. while baltimore is no longer a punching bag and i certainly don't think they're repeating 2012, they're certainly not a pushover anymore. i think the red sox are better than people are giving them credit for, same as the yanks.
Taking a critical line, here's a possible scenario for Toronto:

Dickey had a career, almost generational season for a knuckler. Considering Wake is probably the best knuckler of all time (or right there), is it far-fetched Dickey is essentially Wake this year? When you consider he's moving to the AL East as well, a high 3 - low 4 ERA doesn't seem at all far-fetched to me. Add in that Wake never thrived in the Rogers Centre, so maybe it's not the best park for the knuckler. That would make him a #3 this year.

Josh Johnson, another Miami export. Far-fetched at all that he delivers either a Beckett 1st Sox season or any Burnett season? That makes him a #3, maybe. I see this as not only possible but likely, and maybe a best-case.

Buehrle. Moving to the AL East a 1.5 WHIP and low-mid 4 ERA seems very possible to me.

Romero was a trainwreck last season right?

I don't know...I see a decent/not great lineup with a rotation that could be loaded with #3 starters, not unlike what we might see at Fenway this year. I could easily see Toronto as an 78-84 win team.

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