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02-26-2013, 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by MoreOrr View Post
A 1/4 chance, no Crayton??
Eh, well, the 1/3 figure I gave was a simplification of 5/18 which assumes each Wild Card has an equal chance of coming from any of the 4 conferences and no conference can have more than 5 playoff teams. So, it is designed to be a HIGH-end estimate with lots of rounding.

Hmm, I think I also assumed (accidentally) that there wouldn't be exactly 4 teams from each conference... okay, a little less than 1/4. I don't really have the time/desire to do a more accurate count. Because it is more likely that the final wild-card team comes from a division that hasn't sent one yet, the figure is likely closer to 1/5. The fact that the Pacific division is 7 teams while the eastern ones are 8... yeah, don't know how exactly that affects the figure.

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