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02-26-2013, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by juantimer View Post
How far back, and how much is the difference? Is this just a remarkable artifact of variance? I can't think of a logical explanation for this other than the salary thing, but the salary seems to have no relationship to it, and of course before the salary cap salary didn't matter at all.

This smacks of a remarkable coincidence that is nevertheless a coincidence. Or, perhaps a non-causative correlation, such as a team's success causing less roster turnover which keeps homegrown players around longer, but without those players necessarily being part of the reason for that success.
Back to the Rags' cup but not including. (Note Forsberg rule: Original team is considered to be the team for which the player played his first NHL game.)

Various hypotheses:

1. Forwards peak earlier therefore GMs are better at identifying those who have that extra something. Much easier as they can control the player's contract until UFA.

2. Hometown allegiance. Easier to dig a little bit deeper for the original developing org.

3. Forwards that are traded are deeply flawed in some way. Similar to item 1. GMs recognize it and these are the only ones available in trade. Basically the lemon hypothesis like car buyers who won't sell back cherry cars, only lemons.

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