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02-26-2013, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Star ratings are highly skewed towards the teams they commit to. If you watch them you will see many times when a team like Alabama picks up a 2*, the next update they will jump to a 3 or 4*. Now if that player committed to La Tech, they would stay a 2*. It happens all the time. I have even seen stars decrease when a player commits to a school. The whole stars thing is a sham. From 09-12 nearly the same amount of 2 stars and lower have been drafted in the 1st round as there have been 5*. 3 and 4* dominate drafts because they are players that do typically have more talent than the 2* and there are a huge amount of them out there (about 700-750 per year).
Some research on this from the intrawebs:

2011 draft.

The breakdown for the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Star 1st Round Picks
5 5
4 13
3 9
2 5

Odds of becoming a 1st round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft

Star Odds of 1st Rnd
5 10-1
4 20-1
3 111-1
2 240-1
2012 Draft

CONCLUSION: On the surface, it appears that a five-star recruit is just as likely to get drafted in the first round as the two-stars, considering that four of each were taken this year. But that isn't using math correctly. There are only 25-30 five-star recruits in any given year while there are roughly 1,600-1,800 two-stars each cycle. Therefore, if you are rated as five-star, you have roughly a 13.3% chance to get drafted in the first round (4/30). But if you are a two-star prospect, you have a 0.2% chance of being drafted in the first round (4/1,800).

A pretty massive difference.

If you are a four-star prospect, you have a 4.3% chance of being drafted in the first round (13/300), and as a three-star recruit, you have a 1.3% chance of going in the first round (10/800). It's safe to say, that the higher-ranked prospects have a dramatically better chance of landing in the first round.

These numbers are not an end-all be-all. There are simply a look at one round of one draft. But as the industry of college football recruiting rankings continue to grow, fans can expect these self-proclaimed talent evaluators to continue getting better at predicting the future.

So as a special service announcement to all the recruiting haters out there, PAY ATTENTION!

Recruiting is the lifeblood of the sport we all love so much.

And a study on how recruiting rankings predict future team success

Your 5 Star Takeaway

Recruiting rankings have a huge correlation to future team success, especially on defense. Great teams can come from average talent, but more talent typically means more success. On defense it is virtually impossible to build an elite defense without elite recruits, and its equally true across all defensive positions. On offense dreams of 5 star skill position players are fun, but coaching, player development, system and luck play a much bigger role in future success than they do on defense. With top 20 and higher recruits at nearly every position on defense, Michigan is poised for a very strong future if they can keep the talent around.

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