Flames sign O'Reilly to Offer Sheet
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02-27-2013, 10:53 PM
Join Date: Sep 2002
Originally Posted by
I agree in what you think O'Reilly will be going forward, especially on another team with a bigger role.
I disagree with how much you think the Avs can get back in addition to Little, if the Avs don't add a big piece to O'Reilly. These are two different things. If the other piece from the Jets is that much better in value than Little, I think it will be close to equaling O'Reilly in value.
So that means whatever else we add would have to equal the value of Little.
I don't see that being O'Byrne, O'Brien, or Wilson, or whatever the forward or propect equivalent would be.
Maybe it will be more clear if we talk about what you think the second piece would be in addition to Little. If the main part of the deal from Winnipeg is something better than Little, what would that be? Bogo?
If it's Bogo or that kind of value, than I'll stick with my belief the Avs would have to add a big piece rather than a depth D. If you mean Trouba, I'm not really sure on that because I have a hard time assessing his value. I'm a little wary of his ultimate offensive upside, but it seems like most people value him pretty highly.
Ok, now I get a bit more where you're coming from. It wouldn't be Bogosian because he's got wayyyy too much upside and is already a big part of their team right now.
The thing is this...Trouba is looking like a great prospect but like many who have come before him, got drafted and looked to be a future building block,
nothing is certain
. So you CANNOT take it at face value that he's going to absolutely become a top pairing guy because of that risk. His ACTUAL value is that of a 9th overall pick who has played well so far and is progressing nicely. No more, no less. There are 8 other teams who prefered OTHER players than this guy and that includes SIX defencemen.
So you cannot say, the Avs would be getting Bryan Little who's a top-6 guy AND Trouba a top pairing guy because that's not accurate since Trouba is not that player YET and may never even develop into that player...the risk is the reason the value isn't as high as you're suggesting.
Put it this way, if today was draft day, 2012 and the Avs had an offer on the table for Little + 9th overall pick for RoR, what do you think 99% of Avs fans would say? Let alone ADD anything to the deal.
The only difference with that scenario is that we know they picked Trouba in that spot and he played very, very well in the WJC. Like I've said before, the list of players to go on and excel after being drafted only to end up not quite reach their potential is very long. (Hickey, Pogge, Filatov, etc.) Do you remember Justin Pogge's performance at the WJC and how amazing he was going to be for the leafs, that he made Tuuka Rask expendable and all that? THAT'S the reason a prospect is still just a prospect.
Trouba's value is close to what Duncan Siemens value is to us, probably a bit more because of his play at the WJC but Duncan has been a rock for most of this season. Trouba was rated 9th by TSN,THN & Central Scouting, 11th by redline, 10th by McKeens and 5th by ISS (and 5th by me too, because I think very highly of this guy).
I haven't been against adding something to the deal either but I wouldn't add a piece that could end up giving them the best player in the deal AND
the best prospect in the deal, that just wouldn't work for me. By adding Barrie, that could be exactly what we'd be doing because you never really know how things will work out.
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