Flames sign O'Reilly to Offer Sheet
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02-27-2013, 11:10 PM
Fire Walk With Roy
Join Date: Oct 2003
Originally Posted by
Ok, now I get a bit more where you're coming from. It wouldn't be Bogosian because he's got wayyyy too much upside and is already a big part of their team right now.
The thing is this...Trouba is looking like a great prospect but like many who have come before him, got drafted and looked to be a future building block,
nothing is certain
. So you CANNOT take it at face value that he's going to absolutely become a top pairing guy because of that risk. His ACTUAL value is that of a 9th overall pick who has played well so far and is progressing nicely. No more, no less. There are 8 other teams who prefered OTHER players than this guy and that includes SIX defencemen.
So you cannot say, the Avs would be getting Bryan Little who's a top-6 guy AND Trouba a top pairing guy because that's not accurate since Trouba is not that player YET and may never even develop into that player...the risk is the reason the value isn't as high as you're suggesting.
Put it this way, if today was draft day, 2012 and the Avs had an offer on the table for Little + 9th overall pick for RoR, what do you think 99% of Avs fans would say? Let alone ADD anything to the deal.
The only difference with that scenario is that we know they picked Trouba in that spot and he played very, very well in the WJC. Like I've said before, the list of players to go on and excel after being drafted only to end up not quite reach their potential is very long. (Hickey, Pogge, Filatov, etc.) Do you remember Justin Pogge's performance at the WJC and how amazing he was going to be for the leafs, that he made Tuuka Rask expendable and all that? THAT'S the reason a prospect is still just a prospect.
Trouba's value is close to what Duncan Siemens value is to us, probably a bit more because of his play at the WJC but Duncan has been a rock for most of this season. Trouba was rated 9th by TSN,THN & Central Scouting, 11th by redline, 10th by McKeens and 5th by ISS (and 5th by me too, because I think very highly of this guy).
I haven't been against adding something to the deal either but I wouldn't add a piece that could end up giving them the best player in the deal AND possibly the best prospect in the deal, that just wouldn't work for me. By adding Barrie, that could be exactly what we'd be doing because you never really know how things will work out.
I'm with you on most everything here in principle. I'm with you on Trouba, I don't have a strong interest in him, because I'm worried his end product won't have enough offense, so therefore I don't see the point in trading O'Reilly for that. I'm not even interested in Little, because I don't see any need for a player like that, with other much bigger holes to fill.
I'm also with you on the fact that you are going to be very hard pressed to end up with a better player like O'Reilly with to use your example, a 9th overall pick. Unproven prospects and draft picks pale in comparison to a player like O'Reilly.
In practice however, that team has to give up that asset. Getting a team to give up a 9th overall pick is pretty hard. Even though we may agree on how we value a prospect like Trouba, Winnipeg is gonna value him highly, and not give him up easily. No matter how stocked they are on D.
In terms of realistic value, and to use your example, I don't see how the Avs can get much more real value than a 9th overall pick for O'Reilly. Something small in addition, sure maybe, but if they are trying to get Little back in addition to that, they'll have to add a pretty good piece, and to me that's not O'Byrne, O'Brien, Wilson etc.
I think you probably disagree, and who knows maybe you're right. Personally, I hope we don't find out, because that kind of package isn't all that appealing to me. I'd rather they push for an MDZ type, and they could fairly easily find a Hejda type player as a UFA, or just be happy with Siemens playing a similar role as Trouba. Even if it ends up being below what he becomes.
Same with Little. I think they could address what he would bring to the table in a lot of ways, like UFA, or develop a prospect or draft pick. That offensive D that's already in the league, or even a more power winger or two way center would be a better option to help replace O'Reilly/Stastny and/or Jones.
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