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02-28-2013, 08:11 AM
Natey's Avatar
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Habville
Country: Canada
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Statistics 101 rant:

I'm one of his detractors and let me tell you faceoffs are completely overrated on this board. They're very close to a crapshoot, almost every single player in the NHL is between 48% and 52%.

If a center goes 13/19 on the night, he is not "on fire", he got lucky, that's all.

This season, Desharnais is 147/303 in the faceoff circle, or 48.5%. You know what the 68% confidence interval is on that? It's 2.9%. That means that we only know with 68% certainty (which is even weaker than the 19 times out of 20 used by polling firms) that Desharnais' true skill level is between 45.6% and 51.4%, based on this season's sample size alone. But that's nearly every player in the NHL anyway. So basically, we don't know anything about DD's faceoff effectiveness, other than the fact he is approximately average.

Analogy, if you flip a coin 20 times (very nearly equivalent to faceoffs) and you get heads 13 times, it doesn't mean you have a coin that is "on fire".
You can say that about anything in hockey though. What's the point in even discussing stuff then?

The exact same thing could be said for goals, assists, and whatever else.

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