Flames sign O'Reilly to Offer Sheet
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02-28-2013, 09:44 AM
Join Date: Sep 2002
Originally Posted by
I'm with you on most everything here in principle.
I'm with you on Trouba, I don't have a strong interest in him, because I'm worried his end product won't have enough offense, so therefore I don't see the point in trading O'Reilly for that. I'm not even interested in Little, because I don't see any need for a player like that, with other much bigger holes to fill.
I'm also with you on the fact that you are going to be very hard pressed to end up with a better player like O'Reilly with to use your example, a 9th overall pick. Unproven prospects and draft picks pale in comparison to a player like O'Reilly.
In practice however, that team has to give up that asset. Getting a team to give up a 9th overall pick is pretty hard. Even though we may agree on how we value a prospect like Trouba, Winnipeg is gonna value him highly, and not give him up easily.
No matter how stocked they are on D.
In terms of realistic value, and to use your example,
I don't see how the Avs can get much more real value than a 9th overall pick for O'Reilly.
Something small in addition, sure maybe, but if they are trying to get Little back in addition to that, they'll have to add a pretty good piece, and to me that's not O'Byrne, O'Brien, Wilson etc.
I get what your saying about Trouba's offense but it's probably better than you think. Even still, my personal belief is that it's not going to matter. It's like saying you don't want a young Adam Foote because he doesn't provide offense. [Trouba will be better than Foote on offense, I believe]
As for the second part, teams give up those kinds of draft picks literally all the time.
2007/06/22 San Jose Sharks traded Vesa Toskala and Mark Bell from the Toronto Maple Leafs for a conditional
1st round selection in 2007
, a 2nd round selection in 2007 and a 4th round selection in 2009.
That 1st rounder turned out to be Logan Couture (9th overall). [Man, the leafs REALLY made some bad decisions when you think they could of had Tuuka Rask & Logan Couture by NOT making dumb ass trades]
As we all know, the Avs traded a 1st rounder that ended up 11th for Varlamov.
Perhaps the best comparable, both in a package return AND in the type of player that was dealt is the Jordan Staal trade of last year.
J. Staal returned:
-> B.Sutter,C (solid 3rd line center that had put up 40,29 and 32 point seasons | PP time reduced from 1:55m in Season 1 to 0:46s & 0:26s in following seasons with the arrival of Skinner)
-> 7th overall pick (Derrick Pouliot,D picked 2 spots before Trouba)
-> Brian Dumoulin (2nd round pick - 51st overall 2009)
Now, keep in mind that Rutherford COULD have waited the year out and got Staal for FREE this summer but made the trade anyways (bad asset management, if you ask me). Here is an interesting article by LeBrun on this I read a few days ago:
Little is more offensive, Sutter is better defensively and with adequate PP time, CAN put up more points but probably better suited to a 3rd line C role. The 7th overall vs 9th overall usually means a 3rd round pick to move up to (at the draft anyways) and a developed 21 year old, former 2nd round pick is a pretty good return for Staal.
Based on this and the fact that the Avs can negotiate with 29 other teams while the Penguins apparently only had 2 options,
I don't get how you can think that we'd be hard pressed to get more than a 9th overall pick.
The REAL point is this though, when teams see that there is an asset available, a guy they feel they need,
they need to step up and get the deal done
. Just like the Avs did with Varly and just like Rutherford did with Jordan Staal. Is it possible that Filip Forsberg goes on to score 40 goals per year in the NHL? Yep. THAT'S the risk of going out there and getting the guy you feel you need on your team. Don't have the balls to make those kinds of deals?? Then you DON'T get that player and you end up a team like the leafs who WANT Centers and Goalies but are afraid of making a bad trade.
If the Avs were only to get a 9th overall pick (or a prospect like Trouba) as a return for O'Reilly, it would be a colossal failure because of the risks involved with draft picks and prospects. You don't want to come away from a deal like this with a 'maybe', you want to come away with a deal like this with a 'ok, we've got this and the chance for 'wow'!'. That's my take on it anyways.
Originally Posted by
Newport reps are meeting with the Rangers today per Katie Strang.
Barff...do not want Del Zotto. Marc Staal or GTFO. (don't care if it's not realistic, that would be the guy I would want)
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