ATD 2013 - Draft Thread V
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02-28-2013, 02:47 PM
I voted for Kodos
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: West Egg, New York
Originally Posted by
Please, android chrome browser, don’t let this post be full of stars when I hit send…
-********* I have most often used 6 seasons as a peak period for comparison (usually best 6, not best consecutive 6). TDMM would vouch for this as he’s been in many lower drafts with me as well. Preferring 7 vs. preferring 6 is not a huge difference in philosophy, and using 6 over 7 would make me less longevity friendly.
-********* I agree that extra greatness beyond a generally accepted peak length (5, 6, 7 years) is worth something, but less.
I actually did not know that. Shows how much I pay attention to what other people are actually saying. You and my wife could start a support group.
-********* I definitely do not reward a player as much for their 12th best season as for their first, but I know you were just being hyperbolic for effect.
I'm glad we understand each other. I think I did use the word "seems", for what it's worth.
When analyzing players’ offense in my last ATD, I actually plugged their top-
percentage scores into a formula that weighted them (I think 20, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10) and then divided by 146 to yield a weighted average that favours peak. Not as heavily as some might favour it, but it still did. So if I were to claim a low peak, high longevity guy to be better than a higher peak player, he’d have to
win the longevity battle.
That's a very interesting method.
-********* I am closer to you on the whole “what does it mean to have a good 8th-12th best season?” question than you probably realize. I think that this type of extended peak does
increase a player’s offensive potential in an ATD season, but not significantly. I think that more importantly, it manifests itself in the form of greater game-to-game consistency.
That's almost exactly how I look at it. I consider not only non-peak longevity (for me, seasons 8+), but also season-to-season consistency (how many ups and downs did a player have during his peak? I favor guys whose peaks all came in consecutive seasons) and durability in the equation when I try to determine just how consistent I expect an individual's game-to-game ATD performance to be. And I do value the results of this little calculus. As much parity as there is in the ATD, any team that wins the Cup can be sure to face at least one game 7 along the way. Knowing that you're going to get the best out of any given player is a valuable quality (obviously actual playoff record comes into play here, as well).
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