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03-05-2013, 03:34 PM
  #832
Beacon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluenote13 View Post
Looking early at the '11 draft looks promising. Miller looks like a player but it will be interesting to see if some of the names picked right after him become even better.

That's not fair. You can't expect our scouts to draft the guy who turns out to be the best player because that's awfully hard to predict. About half of the kids drafted at #15 don't even make the NHL, so if Miller becomes a quality third liner who scores 15+25=40, that's a great selection, regardless of anything else.

Furthermore, Miller was NOT drafted to turn out to be the best player available. People are acting like every player is ranked based on their potential with everyone having the same odds of reaching that potential. That's false.

Miller was a "safe" pick. Therefore, by definition, he's not going to turn out to be the best player available at #15. There will be someone who was regarded as high-risk, high-return - someone you didn't want because he was small or injured or whatever - and that player will wind up turning into the best player. Sure, not every high-risk player will succeed, but it will be these players, among those who succeed, will be the best ones available at #15.

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