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03-05-2013, 09:15 PM
Hammer Time
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Originally Posted by Rutabaga View Post
For the record, it is obviously possible to be playing in the post-season despite having a Fenwick ratio under 50%.
But they're not that many. (4 last year, 2 in 2011...)

Its stating the obvious, but you cant expect good and consistent results, if you're outshot that often at ES without some magic recipe. The shortened season is fooling some people, but right now, teams like Anaheim, Toronto and Nashville are good ideas if you want to bet about a "suprising" fall in the standings or a first-round exit if the regression to the mean doesnt happen early enough. Which is totally possible in a 48-game schedule. But its very likely that their seasons are just a fluke.

These teams (the ones under 50%, not those 3 in particular) clearly overachieved during the regular season, and they basically never repeat their success during the playoffs.

The ones that managed to win several (well, thats never more than 2) rounds always did so because they ended up playing against other team(s) under 50% (Except Pittsburgh under Therrien and Montréal with Halak in the nets. Not sure that models you can/want to replicate.)

Over 70% of the teams playing in the PO have a Fenwick score over 50% and thats probably the safest tool to see which teams are actually controlling the play, and which ones are not.
Doesn't Hiller have one of the highest career EV Sv% in the NHL? That would make him more likely than most other goalies to go on a Halak-like run, and therefore the Ducks could "get away" with having a low Fenwick.

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