Will we ever see a better player than Gretzky? Will we know it?
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03-06-2013, 02:00 AM
Join Date: Jul 2002
Originally Posted by
Wouldn't Sid's 31% be worth more, relatively speaking in a lower scoring league than a higher scoring one overall?
Maybe not, I'm tired math hurts my head on the best of days...lol
Let me try and demonstrate it another way.
Previously, we were being a little generous to Crosby with the extrapolations (and using a year where he an an abnormally high contribution to his team's offense; I'd wager that he settles at around 45% of his team's scoring). So, let us just say that both Lemieux and Crosby score on 50% of the team's goals. However, we've established that Lemieux would increase his team's scoring by about 43% vs. 37.5%. So Lemieux is going to generate about 15% more offense for his team.
Other have mentioned that Crosby could get 130 points. That would mean that Lemieux gets around 149...and again, that is Lemieux not at all in the prime of his career. So it is very reasonable to think that Lemieux or Gretzky could get 160 or even up to 180 in the prime of their careers.
Even if you say that "oh no, Crosby really is a 50% kind of player" or "43 vs 37 is just noise, they are about the same", you at best could argue that Lemieux would be a ~130-140ish player in today's league...and that is an over-the-hill Lemieux well past his prime.
Now, of course you can alway say "we'll never know for sure". Of course we won't know for sure, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try...and personally, I feel the above analysis gives fairly strong evidence that Lemieux and Gretzky would be very dominant players today.
Defensively, Crosby looks decent.
In games he played, Pittsburgh was scored upon 94 times (EV and special team). For the year, the Penguins conceded 196 goals. So when Crosby was on the ice, the team conceded at a rate of 2.3 goals/game, vs. 2.5 goals/game when he wasn't on the ice. That is very close to statistical noise (6%).
Approximating for the removal of shorthanded goals, one could then say that Pittsburgh allows 10% fewer goals when Crosby is on the ice, which is better.
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