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03-06-2013, 08:43 AM
krazy kanuck
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Originally Posted by hockeylegend11 View Post
At the end of the day the committee has to decide between the 2 teams who has a better chance to field a more competitive team
I feel my numbers project Windsor to be more competitive at this pt
Feel free to counter point krazy kanuck or others
I would have prefered to just bookmark the page and quote it next year, but now that you've put so much effort into I feel I should respond with something:

You keep mentioning that the Spits have two tenders and the Colts only 95 born Fotinos. You can't count Pavelka as a returnee then say the Spits have two imports. Let's say you do include him as a returnee, his results aren't all that great. If you don't, you compare Dekort to Fotinos (who are both 95 born). Neither has played much but at least Fotinos has played in meaningful games (especially last year when Niederberger was hurt). Many Colts fans thought they were (and should have) going to ride Fotinos this year because he looked better than Niederberger over that stretch and he was so much younger. It's even at best for the Spits, but given Alex's results and experience, I'd prefer him.

You have some quirks in your methods (not including Theoret's Niagara points) that I don't really understand. Are you including Keokkeok's Peterborough points? Seems like you are. Do you know that the committee will exclude OAs? I sure don't, and would think it ridiculous to not include likely returnees. You always write off Camara, but he hasn't signed with Boston yet and this is his first really good year. Not likely that he returns, but it's safe to say that Hall and to a lesser extent Theoret will (and if the latter doesn't, the Colts get additional compensation that could be traded). The Colts will likely have three very good OAs.

The Colts will definitely have two imports for 2014 as well (when Niederberger leaves they won't have any imports). They won't be as high as Windsor's, but the bigger issue is who can you convince to come over. I don't pretend to know all those players much less who either team might get, but to say the Spits will have a huge advantage there is an unknown at this point. The Colts do have more to terms of picks everywhere I read the Spits don't have one until the 3rd this year. Even if they do Windsor has 25 and 35 this year they have to trade those assets before the draft. The Colts will have 17 or so and can trade him before the season or at next year's trade deadline, and will have 3 third rounders to trade before the draft this year. As 1st rounders can't be dealt beyond this year's ironically the change in the penalty from first rounders to seconds gives the Spits less to trade for a build now.

You focus a lot on points for. The other side of the coin is goals against, and for all those players you've got returning the Spits are third from the bottom in goals against this year while the Colts are top 5. The Spits have given up 89 more goals this year (almost 50% more!) than the Colts have.

Finally you always want to discount this year's results because the Spits have had injuries. I won't dispute that, but the results are what they are. Moreover, the Colts have lost a number of games for key players and have much better won/loss results "with the guys who will be returning". Scheifele's missed 22, Camara 17, Ekblad 14, Lemieux 26, Lepkowski 8, and Theoret and handful since he came over. Most of those were missed because of camps, U20, and U18, late signings and the like so for the guys who are coming back there isn't the question of how they'll return from injury. At the end of the day both teams have missed players, but the Colts have managed to have a much better record with what was left. Yes they'll lose Sheifele and O'Connor, but the Spits will lose Koko and Aleardi.

I guess we'll see how it all shakes out...

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