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03-06-2013, 10:05 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Montréal
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Originally Posted by rynryn View Post
it could be accurate or it could be overly simple. like "if a team is in 10th place after 40% of games have been played what are the odds they make the playoffs." a formula like that is crap and doesn't take into account there is a team with the same amount of points as us in a playoff position or that our division leader is only 3 points ahead.
It's based on running lots of simulated seasons and seeing who ends up in what position. There's actually a lot more detailed info on the page (% chance team finishes in each place, % chance they're seeded against each opponent, etc.).

Basically the only simplifying assumptions they make are their weighting estimates of how likely a team is to win each game, which I'm guessing is a slight lean one way or the other based on record. The rest of the factors (e.g., closeness of standings, division leads, games played) are all fully considered thanks to the simulation nature of it.

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