Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4
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03-07-2013, 03:17 PM
Join Date: Jan 2012
Originally Posted by
Interesting, thanks. Maybe I missed it but is there any kind of analysis showing the odds of getting a top-liner (i.e. homerum) for picks 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, etc? Apologies if I missed it if it was already shown.
no that was more basedon other research i had read. I'd ahve to go backa nd doit again so maybe on a rainy day in the off season i'll do an update.
considering how my metric for "impact" players followed the same curve essentially as "career" players used in others i'd assume there wouldn't be much change to "super stars" either but i'll give it alook and update.i don't know aht criteria would be good to use, especially for defencement as ELITE d men are often not statistically that much different then their counterparts dependant on playstyle.
for forwards i would probably use something like 65+ points in two seasons or possibly 70 + points? its hard to say without just going off an opinion of who's a star
(ie: an all offense 60 pt player isn't a star necessarily, but a 60 pt two way player is)
i guess i could just aggregate the top 60 forward socrers and see waht the cu toff is over 3 seasons
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