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03-08-2013, 01:06 PM
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Victoria, BC
Originally Posted by
I'd like to see a "close and late" statistic in hockey like we have in baseball. Tell me how often a guy produces points in a tied/one goal game and late in the action. It's not perfect either, but it would be far more meaningful that GWG. You can pick up a GWG in a 5-0 blowout.
Last year I did a breakdown of each players goals scored according to the score in the game (after the goal).
GoalSig is the sum of all the goals discounted by a factor of 1/1.25^n, where n is a based on the score of the game. For goals that put the team in the lead, n is equal to the lead before the goal is scored. For goals that tie the game or see the team trailing, n is equal to the deficit after the goal. So for goals that:
Tie the game, or put the team up 1: n=0, and the goal is valued at 1
Cut the lead to 1, or put the team up 2: n=1 and the goal is valued at 0.8
Cut the lead to 2, or put the team up 3: n=2 and the goal is valued at 0.64
Cut the lead to 3, or put the team up 4: n=3 and the goal is valued at 0.512
And so on.
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