Thread: Marian Gaborik
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03-08-2013, 12:31 PM
  #436
Garfinkel1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -31- View Post
Last year I did a breakdown of each players goals scored according to the score in the game (after the goal).



GoalSig is the sum of all the goals discounted by a factor of 1/1.25^n, where n is a based on the score of the game. For goals that put the team in the lead, n is equal to the lead before the goal is scored. For goals that tie the game or see the team trailing, n is equal to the deficit after the goal. So for goals that:

Tie the game, or put the team up 1: n=0, and the goal is valued at 1

Cut the lead to 1, or put the team up 2: n=1 and the goal is valued at 0.8

Cut the lead to 2, or put the team up 3: n=2 and the goal is valued at 0.64

Cut the lead to 3, or put the team up 4: n=3 and the goal is valued at 0.512

And so on.

I would have counted the N=2,3+ at a much lower rate. Teams that are up by 2 goals tend to win (and I'm being conservative) 80%+ of the time. I would pull in those stars to determine goal value. You should look at how much the goal changes the outcome of the game

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