Thread: Marian Gaborik
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03-09-2013, 02:10 AM
The Sweetness
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Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Stockholm
Country: Sweden
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Originally Posted by -31- View Post
Last year I did a breakdown of each players goals scored according to the score in the game (after the goal).

GoalSig is the sum of all the goals discounted by a factor of 1/1.25^n, where n is a based on the score of the game. For goals that put the team in the lead, n is equal to the lead before the goal is scored. For goals that tie the game or see the team trailing, n is equal to the deficit after the goal. So for goals that:

Tie the game, or put the team up 1: n=0, and the goal is valued at 1

Cut the lead to 1, or put the team up 2: n=1 and the goal is valued at 0.8

Cut the lead to 2, or put the team up 3: n=2 and the goal is valued at 0.64

Cut the lead to 3, or put the team up 4: n=3 and the goal is valued at 0.512

And so on.
Thanks a lot for doing all this work.

What was your rationale for the values you assigned to the goals?

It seems like the chart creates a value for goals scored with extra wight for the importance. It may be interesting just to use it to dumb it down a bit and track percentage of a players goals that are tie-breaker goals or goals when the team is down or up a goal and divide that by the players total goals.

It may help us get a clearer idea, which players tend to contribute most when goals are needed the most.

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