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03-09-2013, 08:41 PM
Street Hawk
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Originally Posted by cheswick View Post
Odds of getting 1st overall. (Last season 30th had a 48.1% chance)

25.0% - 30th
18.8% - 29th
14.2% - 28th
10.7% - 27th
8.1% - 26th
6.2% - 25th
4.7% - 24th
3.6% - 23rd
2.7% - 22nd
2.1% - 21st
1.5% - 20th
1.1% - 19th
0.8% - 18th
0.5% - 17th
Since the percentages remained the same, if the NHL had adopted this from the start of the draft lottery, the only changes you would have seen are the following:

1995 - LA won the lottery, moved up to grab Aki Berg at #4. So, basically they would have landed Berard, dropping Redden to Ottawa, whom they traded Berard for later.
1999 - Chicago won the lottery, moved up to #4. With the 1st pick, they control the draft. Not sure if Mike Smith, GM of the Hawks at the time, would then have pushed to grab the Sedins or not.
2011 - New Jersey won the draft lottery. Took Larsson with the 4th pick. Would they have swapped him for any of the top 3 forwards instead if they held the #1 pick?

17 draft lotteries conducted this way, and only 3 times has a Non-bottom 5 team won the lottery. 3 wins out of 17 lotteries. Given that they have a 23% win rate, pretty much dead on statistically speaking.

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