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03-10-2013, 12:32 AM
  #670
WeekendAtBernies
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Originally Posted by BernieParent View Post
Apologies for not answering earlier; I was out of town. I stand by my assessment that Ryan is a much better player than Voracek. Even if you compare the points on equivalent age, Ryan still outscores Voracek. And remember, Voracek was a 7th overall pick in a very poor draft year, so that top 10 needs an asterisk.

As for my assessment that Voracek is playing over his head, it's mostly gut feeling, but also his productivity versus the general putridness of the club this season.

The 1st? You could rightly argue my proposal to include it in the deal, especially given where the Flyers look to be headed and how good the draft is this season. But questioning if Ryan = Voracek straight up is pretty myopic.
No problem, real life always comes before discussing hockey on a message board.

I can't deny that if you compare the players @ a similar age, Ryan comes out on top. That's pretty clear. But it's close... a lot closer than you make it out to be. Ryan didn't play in the NHL till age 21, so if you start the comparison there, Voracek slightly edges Ryan @ age 21 (but Ryan played a partial season and it was his rookie year, while Voracek was in his 3rd full NHL season). Ryan blows Voracek out of the water @ age 22 AINEC but Voracek appears to be blowing Ryan out of the water @ age 23 AINEC.

Ryan<--------------------------->Voracek
Age 21: .217GPG/.435PPG<--------> .175GPG/.575PPG
Age 22:.484GPG/.891PPG<-------->.231GPG/.628PPG
Age 23:.432GPG/.790PPG<--------> .462GPG/1.12PPG

The thing is, in the case of many players who are 23 and under, when we use what they did in their age 19, 20, 21, 22, etc. seasons, we tend to overrate early bloomers and underrate late bloomers. Bobby Ryan was an early bloomer. He had arguably his best year in the league when he was 22; it was his 2nd year in the league and his 1st somewhat full season and he posted his best PPG and GPG season. At that time, many fans were projecting 40-40 every year type stuff from him. But it never happened. Ryan was a finished product @ age 22. He's been largely the same player since. He's a 30-30 guy; 35-35 in a great year, he never took that next step forward.

Voracek on the other hand is a late bloomer. He entered the league with a fantastic set of skills, but he never really put it all together and then at age 23, boom, he broke-out in a gigantic way. He's yet to prove he can sustain this, but he certainly passes the eye test, his shooting % isn't outrageous or anything close to it, there's no real reason other than your "gut instinct" to think this is a fluke. The reason why people tend to downgrade Voracek is because he was up competing in a man's league and putting up roughly 50 points per season @ the age of 19, 20, and 21 instead of dominating juniors for 2 years and then dominating the AHL for 1/2 a year like Ryan before getting the call. You can blame the Blue Jackets for that IMO, but you can't hold it against the player. Voracek's stats would look a lot better if you wipe away his age 19 and age 20 seasons and replace them with a >100 point junior season and 1/2 a season of PPG play in the AHL.

Just for kicks and giggles btw, if we were to do a similar comparison of Giroux's age 21, 22, and 23 seasons to Voracek and Ryan, we'd find that Ryan > Voracek > Giroux. Now aren't you glad we didn't pull the trigger on a Giroux + 1st for Ryan trade a couple years ago?

The bottom line is that while Ryan likely holds the ever so slightly higher value right now due to his history of production, there's certainly an argument to be made that Voracek will end up being the better player. And regardless of what you think about either player, the difference in value between the two is not a 1st round pick as you stated in your original post. Especially when that 1st has a very legit chance of being in the top 5 and perhaps landing us one of Jones, Drouin, or MacKinnon.


Last edited by WeekendAtBernies: 03-10-2013 at 12:39 AM.
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