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03-11-2013, 03:37 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: toronto
Country: Canada
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It still boils down to, is he more likely to remain at the present level
or regress. Or is he more likely to improve.

Since there is no way to know this beforehand, some judgement or
educated guessing is needed.

I'm guessing that he has a good chance to improve so much, that
a 5-5.5 long term contract, would look like a bargain before year three.
And if he only continues to play like he is, he worth a lot less than that
now. So little would have been lost.

The risk/reward ratio seemed strongly slanted toward signing him
long term.

Of course this has gotten more extreme with his excellent play, and
attitude so far.

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