Brian Burke is a Dinosaur
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03-13-2013, 01:49 AM
Giroux tha Damaja
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Mount Holly, NJ
Originally Posted by
The Boston Red Sox won the world series because Manny was on the juice! Everyone knows this right? The moneyball aspect was finding him correct dosage to never be caught.
Hockey is probably the hardest to use stats on out of all the major sports, too fast, too many random occurrences (deflections, bad ice, rolling pucks, shot going not where you are aiming). Not saying it can't be done but will never be as effective as a individual match up sport like baseball.
I know in basketball now days they talk about true shooting %, per possession stats are big, taking into account the type of player guarding you and how that changing your numbers (a starter, mis match off a switch, bench guy etc)
Its way over my head, but a few good talks on NPR if people want to go find them.
All that stuff comes out in the wash. Those random occurences and variance in general, even out with a large enough sample size.
What makes hockey players hard to track statistically is that the game is free flowing. It's not like baseball where there is difinite structure and only so many different situations a player can be in. In hockey there are so, so, so many different "game states", and they're all very different. Where as in baseball the structure is much more rigid, and it's much easier to track and quantify every single thing a player does. In hockey, how do you quantify an accurate and reliable first pass from a defesneman. How many of those is one assist worth? How do you quantify an extremely fast defenseman who's always in position or able to get in position, to discourage opposing forward from attempting to carry the puck to high percentage shooting areas?
Sure, these sorts of things I'm talking about show up in #'s like corsi etc., but those numbers are also tightly tied into the action of team mates. It's just not like baseball, where you're essentially playing alone within the framework of a team. When you bat, run, and field, how you do what you do is impacted very little by your team.
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