Thread: Sean Couturier
View Single Post
Old
03-13-2013, 11:21 AM
  #134
CS
Bryzgalov's Blueline
 
CS's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 14,160
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WeekendAtBernies View Post
Not really...

Sean Couturier has 43 shots. It's quite simple to figure out how many goals he would have if his shooting percentage had normalized. If we assume his normal shooting% is 11.2% (like last year), you do .112 * 43 shots = 4.81. If Couturier was shooting 11.2%, he'd have 4.81 goals instead of the 2 goals that he currently has. That would give him 9.81 points in 25 games, or a 32pts per 82 pace. Not exactly setting the world on fire there.

If we assume he's shooting 13.4% (RNH's from last yr), you do .134*43 shots =5.76 goals. That would give him 10.76 points in 25 games or a 35 pts per 82 pace. Again, not exactly great.
Actually, it's not just about scoring goals.

It's far more indicative of his play in the offensive zone, which has been subpar this season. When guys like Couturier, who should excel in the offensive zone, have crappy shooting percentages it's usually an indication that they are taking shots that they shouldn't, not getting opportunities, or not exploiting the opportunities that they do get.

Likewise, when players have higher shooting percentages it's usually indicative of a career year all-around. See: Talbot of 2011-12.

Another thing...

32 points in 82 games is what he would be pacing at with an 11.2 SH%.

He was pacing for roughly 29 points in 82 games last year.

So yes, figuratively AND technically (as you pointed out for me) Couturier's offense would be right where it is to be expected if he were shooting 11.2% like last season.

Maybe he's not setting the world on fire, but he's a 20-year-old defensive forward with a steady rotation of 3rd and 4th line wingers playing an almost purely defensive role outside of the time he gets on the 2nd PP unit.


Last edited by CS: 03-13-2013 at 11:41 AM.
CS is offline   Reply With Quote