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03-13-2013, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
At this point I think that to trade Gagner the Oilers would have to be blown away by the return. My guess is that he is here for a while.

His contract is going to be quite delicate. He holds the majority of the cards, and if he does not like what he sees he goes to arbitration. Historically, arbitration results are skewed by offensive numbers. The Oilers do not have a good case in this regard. So they need to give him a fair deal but control the parameters.

If he gets over 40 points it will be hard to keep the deal under $5M. But if they are smart they will front load it to keep his trade value going forward. A deal like

7 6.5 4.25 3.75 3.5

is a 5 year deal with a cap hit of $5M. In year three the deal becomes effectively a three year deal at about $3.8M in real dollars. He would still be tradable to a team on a budget if a better option is available.
Your logic is sound.

I don't love it and I don't hate it so it sounds realistic to me concerning the cap hit number.

I'm always scared when players put up numbers in contract years. Maybe you just notice when play drops after more often but it just seems to be the case.

I guess Hall hasn't dropped statistically... Eberle has though. Will cross my fingers and hope this is the Sam Gagner we get from now on. Always loved his character.

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