Thread: Prospect Info: The 2013 NHL Entry Draft
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03-14-2013, 09:07 PM
  #503
Duchene2MacKinnon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by decma View Post
Q scoring has gone up after Christmas and I believe the league is now at 6.98 goals per game.

But this is still lower than the OHL's 7.46 during Kane's draft eligible season
(2006/2007).

Normalizing all the data to 8 goals per game, and projecting each player's points per game over 80 games, here are the top 40 draft-eligible major junior seasons by forwards since 1981.


1 Crosby 05 Q 266
2 Mario 84 Q 257
3 Kane 07 O 204
4 Drouin 13 Q 201
5 Briere 96 Q 197

6 Lafontaine 83 Q 187
7 Brendl 99 W 186
8 Spezza 01 O 185
9 Lindros 91 O 183
10 Gagner 07 O 183

11 Daigle 93 Q 183
12 Bouchard, PM 02 Q 182
13 Lecavalier 98 Q 177
14 Hall 10 O 167
15 Tavares 09 O 167

16 Hawerchuk 81 Q 163
17 Savard, M 91 O 163
18 Brassard Q 06 163
19 Turgeon, P 87 Q 161
20 Thornton 87 O 161

21 Little 06 O 154
22 MacKinnon 13 Q 154
23 Stamkos 08 O 154
24 Langkow 95 W 153
25 Ribeiro 98 Q 152

26 Tanguay 98 Q 151
27 Gratton 93 O 150
28 Couturier 11 Q 150
29 Huberdeau 11 Q 150
30 Damphousse 85 Q 149

31 Staal, E 03 O 148
32 Richards, B 98 Q 145
33 Seguin 10 O 145
34 Falloon 91 W 145
35 Bellows 82 O 145

36 Primeau 90 O 144
37 Ryan 05 O 143
38 Marleau 97 W 143
39 Turgeon, S 83 O 142
40 Nugent-Hopkins 11 W 142



A few observations:
1) Drouin is having some kind of year.

2) the list is dominated by Q players. Even controlling for league scoring levels by normalizing to 8 goals per game, Q fwds take 5 of top 6 spots (and 18 of top 40. O with 17 in top 40 and W with only 5).

3) If guys score at that clip as 17/18 year olds in major junior, they almost definitely will be able to score at NHL level (only complete bust on the list in Brendl) and should not be passed over in draft. Six on that list slipped past the top 10 of the draft - Biere 24th, Savard 91st, Little 12th, Ribeiro 45th, Tanguay 12th, and Richards 64th. Jury still out on Little, but the other 5 are (or were) top 6 forwards with some seasons at all-star level.


If you do the same things with goals (arguably a better predictor of NHL success than points), here are the top 40:

1 Mario 121
2 Crosby 107
3 Stamkos 92
4 Tavares 91
5 Lindros 87

6 Brendl 87
7 Kane 83
8 Tanguay 83
9 Lafontaine 80
10 Drouin 80

11 Briere 80
12 Skinner 75
13 P. Turgeon 75
14 Langkow 72
15 Hawerchuk 72

16 Gratton 72
17 Lupul 71
18 Convery 71
19 Bellows 70
20 Legwand 70

21 Spezza 69
22 E. Kane 69
23 Hall 68
24 Lecavalier 67
25 Seguin 66

26 Nolan 66
27 Falloon 66
28 Primeau 66
29 Warriner 65
30 Huberdeau 65

31 Niedermeyer 64
32 Brassard 64
33 Bernier 64
34 Ricci 63
35 E. Staal 63

36 MacKinnon 63
37 Gelinas 63
38 Carson 63
39 D. Roy 62
40 Brule 62
Pretty impressive

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