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03-15-2013, 11:04 PM
  #377
pdd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
now that I have more time... I'm curious where you will turn now that your supposed point against Messier crumbles. You are criticizing him for his best season being a massive outlier that's not indicative of his true ability. But no matter how you slice it, this criticism applies to your boy Yzerman even worse!

1st/2nd: Messier 13%, Yzerman 19%
1st/9th: Messier 25%, Yzerman 72%

cut off the "outlier best seasons"

2nd/5th: Messier 4%, Yzerman 16%
2nd/9th: Messier 10%, Yzerman 44%
A significant difference is that Yzerman, halfway through his career, changed his playing style dramatically.

Quote:
Yeah. I know. But I also am experienced enough in this section and in stats, to know that after adjustment Messier would still look just fine.

Here are a couple of examples of this type of analysis done more fairly:

From Hockey Outsider's study:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...975&highlight=

Note that Messier is 11th in top-5 seasons, 12th in top-10 seasons, 7th in top-15 seasons and 9th in top-20 seasons. His overall "score" puts him 9th among post expansion players (which includes Howe, for whatever reason)

Using my own percentage system, which is a bastardization of the more well-known system BM67 uses (comparison to the league's #2 scorer), Messier does very well, and this includes all forwards who played most of their careers in the NHL, not just post-expansion:

Name 100+ 90+ 80+ 70+ total
Howe 7 16 21 22 66
Gretzky 14 16 17 17 64
Yzerman* 4 7 14 17 42
Mikita 6 10 12 13 41
Jagr 7 8 12 13 40
Dionne 6 8 11 15 40
Messier* 3 9 12 16 40
Lemieux 8 9 10 12 39
Hull 7 7 11 12 37
Sakic 3 5 13 15 36
Beliveau 3 8 11 13 35
Esposito 8 8 8 10 34
Richard 4 7 10 11 32
Yzerman 2 5 10 14 31
Oates 3 4 10 13 30
Messier 3 4 9 12 28
Selanne 2 6 9 10 27
Bathgate 2 6 9 10 27
Bossy 2 7 7 10 26
Francis 1 3 8 14 26
Lindsay 4 5 8 8 25
Stewart 2 2 9 12 25
Stastny 4 5 6 9 24
Mahovlich 0 6 8 10 24
Br. Hull 2 2 6 14 24
Hawerchuk 2 4 7 11 24
Morenz 2 4 8 9 23
Lafleur 5 6 6 6 23
Trottier 2 4 7 10 23
Boucher 1 5 7 10 23
Thornton 2 4 6 11 23
Recchi 0 4 9 10 23
Kurri 3 5 6 8 22
Forsberg 3 5 6 8 22
Ullman 2 3 6 11 22
Robitaille 1 3 7 10 21
Ratelle 1 4 6 10 21
Clarke 3 4 4 9 20
Apps 3 4 5 8 20
Ovechkin 4 4 6 6 20
Denneny 1 5 7 7 20
Bucyk 1 2 6 10 19
Sundin 0 1 5 13 19
Turgeon 0 1 8 10 19
Savard 2 3 6 8 19
Gilmour 1 2 5 10 18
Cook 2 4 5 7 18
Conacher 2 5 5 6 18
Cowley 2 4 4 8 18
Bentley 2 5 5 5 17
Kariya 1 4 5 7 17
Modano 0 0 6 10 16
Geoffrion 2 2 4 8 16
Iginla 1 2 6 7 16
Lach 1 3 5 7 16
Blake 1 2 5 8 16
Delvecchio 0 0 6 10 16
Fleury 0 1 5 9 15
Fedorov 1 2 4 8 15
Joliat 1 1 5 8 15
Perreault 0 1 5 9 15
Jackson 2 3 5 5 15
D.Bentley 2 3 3 7 15
Abel 1 3 4 7 15
Roenick 0 2 4 8 14
Crosby 2 4 4 4 14
Malkin 3 3 3 5 14
Schmidt 1 2 4 6 13
Alfredsson 0 2 3 8 13
Tkachuk 0 0 5 8 13
H.Richard 1 3 3 5 12
Shanahan 0 1 4 6 11
Moore 2 2 3 4 11
Weight 0 2 3 6 11
Damphousse 0 0 4 6 10
Kennedy 0 1 2 5 8
Andreychuk 0 0 2 5 7
Brindamour 0 0 2 5 7
Gartner 0 0 1 5 6
Nieuwendyk 0 0 0 6 6
Keon 0 0 1 4 5
Middleton 0 0 1 4 5
Neely 0 0 0 2 2

I included everyone from the original HOH top-100, a few young stars, and everyone who wasn't in the above, that was top-60 all-time in hockey-reference adjusted points.

Messier's "score" of 28 puts him 14th all-time. Clearly he is one of the most dominant point producing forwards of all-time. His 2nd place rank on the all-time scoring list overrates him, but no one with any serious background in historical analysis uses that as a basis for anything anymore.

The "Yzerman*" and "Messier*" are fantasies where they don't miss a single game and continue to produce at the same level. Injuries did affect some of their stronger seasons, and as you can see, it was to a similar degree.

There was also a study in this section that I can't find anymore; it showed how many games a player played at a certain level (top-2, top-5, top-10, etc) so that a player who played 50 games at a level that would have put them 4th in scoring, gets credit for playing 50 games at a top-5 level. I am sure Messier would look great in this study as well. Whoever can find this one, feel free to post it.
As I'm sure you noticed, Yzerman is ahead of Messier.

Quote:
I'm all for using adjusted stats that even out the eras as best as they can. But it's well documented that hockey-reference's adjusted stats overrate DPE achievements and underrate the 80s somewhat.
Probably accurate. The depth scoring and offense-from-defense that occurred in the 80s to fluff the GF was not reflected in the scoring leaders in general, so adjusting DPE years might make them look like 1992-93 in comparison.

Quote:
Those of us who are heavy into stats find them to be a bit dissatisfying. Anyway, how does that affect what you said? Not much, I imagine. Yzerman has the slightly better offensive peak and keeps up in longevity, so I'd conclude he's a slightly better regular season offensive player. But this thread is about whether Messier's overrated, and considering he's approximately the 15th-most dominant regular season point producing forward of all-time (and his playoff numbers and intangibles don't hurt his cause) then it makes perfect sense that he'd rank approximately 20th-25th on most serious historians' lists.
Say he's the #15 forward. That should rank him about 30th, not about 20-25. Assuming an even distribution of position players throughout the list, of course.

And although he ranked 22nd IIRC on the most recent HFboards list, he generally is ranked in the top 10 or 15 in most all-time rankings done by the media.

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