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03-16-2013, 09:26 PM
  #681
The Perfect Human*
Bow Down to Lidas
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,674
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
i think this is one of those circumstances where you need to look past the numbers and just watch the players play... eberle is the more gifted player, without question, i don't think you'll find much luck arguing otherwise... i also tend to think the skill gap is actually fairly large... gagner makes up for some of the difference in his compete level, which is definitely higher than eberle's

but just looking at the stats:

eberle
age 20 - 0.62 PPG
age 21 - 0.97
age 22 - 0.67 (so far this year, during a very bad cold streak)

gagner
age 20 - 0.60
age 21 - 0.62
age 22 - 0.63
age 23 - 0.96 (this season so far)

so eberle did everything 1 or 2 years sooner, and his "off-year" (this year) is still better than gagner's best year before this season... i would also guess that gagner's numbers come down a bit throughout the rest of this season, and eberle's will go up some (as their respective shooting% regress to the mean somewhat)... unless you think it's likely that gagner continues shooting at 15.3% and eberle continues at 7.3% (hint: neither of those is very likely)
Gagner is over-achieving shooting% wise to the same extent Eberle was for his first 2 seasons. Average shooting%'s are usually in the 11-14% range.

I think both are ~70pt players at their best, kind of like Hemsky.

Eberle is obviously a bit better, based on the eye-test and numbers, but Gagner has improved in a big way. Now that he doesn't have such a monstrous physical disadvantage it's allowing some of his skill to shine through.

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