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03-19-2013, 01:23 AM
Sharp Dressed Man
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Winnipeg
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
he didn't just use Fenwick (nor do I)...
He also used shots for/against and PDO.

SF/SA in the last 5 years has had a strong enough correlation over the last 5 years to long term success to have a P value in the 15th decimal place... That means:
99.9999999999985% confidence that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between shot differential and standings points

Also the PDO points out to two things:
Fasth has the same SV% as he had in SEL, a weaker league
Anaheim is scoring on higher percentage of shots on any team in the league

Yes Fasth is a good goalie and yes they have some good goalscorers on the team. But not that good... not legendary good.
I gotta ask, but how many players/teams ever truly defy those rules of reasonable shot% etc?

I'm certain there are a few guys (Stamkos?) who are never dragged back down from "overachieving"

I find the advanced stats stuff really fascinating, though I know little about it, but I can only assume there are some players who just bury pucks at a rate that doesn't really seem right. Or teams, frankly. I'm sure Geno and Sid could keep Pitt's goals up at a reasonable average even if the rest of the team took less shots.

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