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03-19-2013, 04:34 AM
garret9's Avatar
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Originally Posted by winterpeg View Post
I gotta ask, but how many players/teams ever truly defy those rules of reasonable shot% etc?

I'm certain there are a few guys (Stamkos?) who are never dragged back down from "overachieving"

I find the advanced stats stuff really fascinating, though I know little about it, but I can only assume there are some players who just bury pucks at a rate that doesn't really seem right. Or teams, frankly. I'm sure Geno and Sid could keep Pitt's goals up at a reasonable average even if the rest of the team took less shots.
Opportunistic shooters tend to have high shooting percentages, but they don't count for much of the teams shots on goal (therefore they don't have large affects on team sh%) and their own Sh% tends to vary a lot season to season. They also tend to be labeled as "streaky" because they don't put a lot of pucks on the net and are more vulnerable to quality of shot and goalie, and natural variance of life...
Examples on our own team would be Little, Antropov and Wellwood.

Superb generational talent can "defy odds" like your three examples. All three of them aren't of the "opportunistic" crowd and actually shoot a lot; they all tend to be in the top shots/gp in the league. Also, they do not just have high personal shooting percentages, but the teams themselves tends to have very high shooting percentages when they are on the ice. It makes sense when you think about it. They are really good and therefore they can get the puck into high threat areas more often than another player on average.

But, having a whole team shooting like that on average is completely different story...
For example the Ducks as a team are shooting above 11%... but when you look at last seasons stats for players with more than 40+ games, only 14 forwards were able to have the team shoot at >11% when they were on the ice... And it's no surprise that Stamkos and his shuffling linemates (all 4 of them) consist of 5 of the 14.
So, when I see the Ducks (including their 3rd and 4th lines) shooting as a team better than what 98% of the NHL was able to do for their team, including Malkin.... I suspect some over-performance.

Here's the NHL forwards with 40+ gp in order of On-Ice Sh%:

PDO is based off of On-Ice SH% + On-Ice SV% which is different than a players personal SH%.

2nd EDIT:
last season Olli Jokinen was 33rd in the league for On-Ice SH%... this season he is 340th... poor guy has no luck. Even his linemates who were scoring (like when he was with Kane and Wheeler) would happen to score when he wasn't on the ice lol.

Last edited by garret9: 03-19-2013 at 04:48 AM.
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