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03-19-2013, 09:23 PM
  #51
Mr Kanadensisk
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Join Date: May 2005
Country: Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hanji View Post
No conclusion can be drawn from such a superficial examination. You have not even scratched the surface. I had time this weekend and calculated average placement and winning % for all games for all major players since 1982. Results are as follows. Slovakia is omitted as they have yet to host.

Average placement is temperately better when a country is host, as is win/loss record. But I am not comfortable forming a conclusion as to whether an advantage exists. It would be beneficial if we had info for all home and away games. We could compare that to our host team information.
A similar thread exists here ,
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1376939
The study I did a few years ago looked at the relative placing of teams in the World Championships in the years before and after they host the tournament and it showed that teams on average finished slightly better when not hosting. I chose this method since obviously the strength of teams / nations varies over time and the winning percentage of a team in 2010 probably has little to do with their performance in 1985. However one thing I will admit is there is relatively very little modern data to work with when it comes to international hockey, especially compared to league stats.

There have been a number of home ice advantage threads through the years but they almost exclusively focus on the home ice advantage in league play. Even in league play the home ice advantage statistically is very small but also many of the reasons for the advantage don't apply in international hockey. For example the rules advantage, last line change, etc., don't apply, the home team being more familiar with any quirky things about the rink usually don't apply, the travel advantage doesn't apply, etc, etc, etc.

My guess is that the pressure of playing at home helps some and hurts some but saying that the host team has some sort of big advantage just isn't true.

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